Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 1 February 2016


Posted February 1, 2016 by ways2capital

Gold prices are trading on positive nota after the data released on Friday showed that U.S. economic growth braked sharply in the last quarter of 2015, expanding at an annual 0.7 percent rate, as tepid global demand weighed on exports.

 
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Bullion
Gold prices are trading on positive nota after the data released on Friday showed that U.S. economic growth braked sharply in the last quarter of 2015, expanding at an annual 0.7 percent rate, as tepid global demand weighed on exports. The data raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of future U.S. rate increases, bolstering gold. Hedge funds and money managers boosted their bullish bet in COMEX gold to a 12-week high in the week to Jan. 26, as they also hiked a silver net long stance, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. The metal has risen more than 5 percent in January, underpinned by concerns over the world's growth outlook, especially China, which has raised questions about the pace of interest rate rises in the United States. Global equities jumped and the yen slumped after the Bank of Japan stunned markets by adopting negative interest rates, while hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve will slow the pace of future rate hikes also underpinned stock gains and supported gold prices. The market largely shrugged off comment by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who said the Fed will be patient about policy decisions. The dollar's ascent accelerated after the release of the U.S. gross domestic product report, which was in line with economists' expectations, but showing a decline.

Energy
US crude oil futures extended gains on Friday to take their weekly rise to more than 4% on hopes of a global deal between oil-producing countries to help tackle a growing supply glut. US crude climbed 32 cents at $33.54 a barrel as of 2338 GMT, after it settled up 92 cents, or 2.9 %, at $33.22 per barrel, down from a high of $34.82. Global benchmark Brent ended up 79 cents, or 2.4 %, at $33.89 a barrel, after trading as high as $35.84. "Despite the unlikely scenario of supply cutbacks in the oil market, prices have found some support above $30 a barrel. We believe this basis is fragile, with fundamentals expected to weaken in the coming weeks," ANZ said on Friday. "We think the likelihood of an agreement between producers is extremely low. In the absence of a supply cut, there is further downside risk to prices in the short term." Brent futures rallied as much as 8 % after Russia said on Thursday that OPEC's largest producer Saudi Arabia, had proposed oil production cuts of up to 5 % in what would be the first global deal in over a decade to help clear a glut of crude and prop up sinking prices "We remain highly sceptical that such a meeting will result in credible cuts in supply; thus, we see this as nothing more than an attempt to shift market sentiment, and we do not expect that it will change the physical market imbalance," Barclays said, referring to meetings between OPEC members and Russia."In our view, the price path implied by our forecasts, of Brent trading less than $40 a barrel for at least two quarters, is required for the balancing process to take place, paving the way for a more sustainable increase in prices." The rebound in the oil market lifted share prices on Wall Street and other stock markets in another rollercoaster session. European stocks fell on disappointing earningsĀ  reports. The dollar slipped on bets that interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve would be more gradual than it has suggested.

U.S. natural gas futures ended up more than 5 percent on Friday in a short covering rally on forecasts for colder weather through the middle of February that should boost heating demand. That put the front month up over 7 percent for the week for its second weekly gain in a row but down over 1 percent for the month. Both the U.S. and European weather models called for cooler weather over the next two weeks. The U.S. model called for colder than normal weather with the latest forecast at noon calling for even colder weather than earlier anticipated. Forecasts for the rest of the winter, however, look much less cold due to the warming effect of the El Nino weather pattern with February expected to be about 13 percent warmer than normal and March 17 percent warmer than normal, according to long range forecasts on Thomson Reuters Analytics.
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Last Updated February 1, 2016