Indian markets ended lower for the third straight session on Thursday, with benchmark indices falling a percent each amid selling across the sectors barring pharma. Today, markets are likely to make cautious start ahead of the RBI’s crucial monetary policy announcement and amid mixed global cues. The market will keenly watch the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) inflation and growth projections in the wake of the continued increase in oil and commodity prices. There is expectation that the central bank to keep the key rates unchanged. Traders will be concerned as the finance ministry said the current elevated level of international crude price, should it persist for a long time, may come in the way of India achieving a real economic growth rate of 8%-plus in FY23 and pose upside risks to inflation as well. However, some support will come as former RBI Governor Bimal Jalan said the Indian economy is in good shape as the country’s GDP growth rate and foreign exchange reserve are high. Notwithstanding economic uncertainties triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war that is also impacting the global supply chain, Jalan said it is not going to affect India’s economic performance. Traders may take note of a private report that with the e-way bills generated for inter-state trade in goods under the goods and services tax (GST) regime touching a record in March, the monthly GST collections will likely hit an all-time high of around Rs 1.5 trillion in April (March transactions). Meanwhile, the finance ministry said the union government is exploring all viable options to procure crude oil at affordable rates. There will be some buzz in the telecom stocks as in a move to boost financial inclusion, telecom regulator Trai has scrapped the charges levied on USSD messages, which are mostly availed by feature phone users, for transactions related to mobile banking and payment services. Insurance industry stocks will be in focus as the insurance regulator, IRDA, wants removal of the minimum entry capital requirement of Rs 100 crore for setting up an insurance business in a bid to facilitate the entry of multiple players such as standalone micro insurers and niche players. There will be some reaction power sector stocks with the finance ministry’s statement that 10 states were given the permission to borrow an additional Rs 28,204 crore in FY22 for undertaking power sector reforms.
The US markets ended higher on Thursday with Pfizer and Tesla fueling a late-session rally while investors eyed the war in Ukraine and a potentially more aggressive Federal Reserve. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Friday extending a selling-off this week fuelled by concerns about the Federal Reserve's plans to aggressively tighten monetary policy to fight inflation.
Back home, Indian equity benchmarks languished in the red throughout the day and ended around a percent lower on Thursday as weak global cues and nervousness ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy outcome tomorrow kept investors on the sidelines. Traders remained cautious with a private report stated that the yield on the 10-year government bond inched up to nearly 7 per cent ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy review scheduled for Friday on fears that the central bank may raise the inflation forecast. Some concern also came with another private report stating that India’s central bank will likely raise its inflation outlook this week to reflect costlier oil, but leave borrowing costs steady and tap other policy tools it’s used before to support an economy facing new risks to recovery. Adding to the pessimism, Union Road Transport and Highways Secretary Giridhar Aramane said that India's national highway construction slowed to 28.64 km a day in 2021-22 due to COVID-19 pandemic related disruptions and a longer-than-usual monsoon in some parts of the country. Domestic equities fell sharply in late afternoon deals, despite a working paper by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stating that extreme poverty in India was as low as 0.8% in 2019 and the country managed to keep it at that level in 2020 despite the unprecedented Covid-19 outbreak, by resorting to food transfers through the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY). Traders overlooked the government data showed exports of agricultural products from India crossed the $50 billion mark for the first time during the financial year 2021-22 on the back of healthy growth in the exports of sugar, rice, wheat and other cereals. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 575.46 points or 0.97% to 59,034.95 and the CNX Nifty was down by 168.10 points or 0.94% to 17,639.55.
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