✍ MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 43,000 to a seasonally adjusted 265,000 for the week ended Jan. 24, the lowest since April 2000, the US Labor Department said. It was the biggest weekly decline since November 2012.
Annual inflation in Germany turned negative in January for the first time since the height of the global financial crisis in 2009,suggesting the euro zone rate could drop further and possibly vindicating the ECB's bond buying program.
The US Dollar Index (DX) traded higher by 0.3 percent hovering close to more than 11-year highs against the other major currencies on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve signaled that interest rates could start to rise around mid-year. US Unemployment Claims fell to 265,000 in the last week from 308,000 in the prior week. Pending Home Sales plunged by 3.7 percent in December as against a gain of 0.6 percent in November.
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.7 percent owing to month-end dollar demand from importers, mainly oil refiners. Also, appreciation of the US dollar against other currencies overseas acted as a negative factor.
However, sharp losses were cushioned as strong foreign capital inflows into equity market restricted the rupee's fall. The currency touched an intra-day low of 61.97 and closed at 61.79 on Thursday.

PRECIOUS METAL
Silver dropped 6.4 percent to $16.81 an ounce, falling below the 100- day moving average and marking its biggest one-day decline since June2013. US economic data showed the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims tumbled to the lowest level in almost 15 years last week. The fall in U.S. unemployment benefit applications far exceeded economists' expectations and came a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve struck a positive tone and kept expectations of an interest rate rise this year on track.
Gold prices tumbled more than 2 percent to a two-week low on Thursday, while silver saw its biggest decline in 1-1/2 years after the Federal Reserve signaled it was still on track to lift U.S. interest rates this Year. The Federal Reserve is confident about growth and optimism in the US economy, although it has taken a patient stance to raise the interest rates. The prospects of higher interest rates in the US will cause a shift from safe haven to other risk assets like equities and exert downside pressure on the pressure metals. In Wednesday's policy statement, the Fed said the U.S. economy was expanding "at a solid pace" but reiterated it would be patient in deciding when to increase benchmark borrowing costs. The Fed said it would take "financial and international developments" into account when determining when to raise rates, referencing global markets for the first time since January

BASE METAL
Copper and other metals prices fell on Thursday on worries about excess supply and after U.S. central bank authorities gave more signals of a looming rate hike. Inventories of both copper and nickel in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses continued to increase on Tuesday with nickel hitting a record, evidence of the ample supply. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said the U.S. economy was expanding "at a solid pace" with strong job gains, in a signal that the central bank remains on track with plans to raise interest rates this year.
Base metals traded lower yesterday after the Federal Reserve signaled it would stick to plans for a rate hike this year, drawing back liquidity that has underpinned metals. Also, expectation of a stronger U.S. dollar boosted by good economic data from the United States acted as a negative factor.
In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded lower in line with weakness in the international markets.
News that top metals consumer China plans to cut its economic growth target to the lowest in 11 years at around 7 percent in 2015 also tainted sentiment. In a signal of dwindling demand for physical metal in China that could undermine LME prices, physical copper in the local market was trading at a discount to the front month ShFE futures contract on Wednesday. LME copper and nickel inventories climbed again on Thursday, adding 2,775 tonnes and 1,836 tonnes respectively. Copper stocks are up more than a third so far this month and nickel touched a record at 425,562 tonnes. Copper failed to get much support even after three industry sources told Reuters that China's stock piler plans to buy about 200,000 tonnes of refined copper in 2015 from the international market.

ENERGY
U.S. natural gas futures ended down 4.3 percent on Thursday after earlier falling to a fresh 2012 low on a smaller-than-expected storage draw despite forecasts calling for a little more cold over the next two weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled 94 billion cubic feet of gas from storage last week, the least for that week since 2010. That fell short of analysts' estimates for a draw of 112 bcf in a Reuters poll, the 219-bcf decrease in the same week a year ago and the five year average draw of 168 bcf. Thomson Reuters Analytic said the latest Global Forecast System weather model for the lower 48 U.S. states called for a little more cold over the next two weeks with an expected 495 heating degree days
Global oil prices firmed slightly on Thursday but not before U.S. crude hit a near six-year low and benchmark Brent pared gains on data showing fresh additions to already record-high U.S. Inventories of U.S. crude were already at record highs for the week ended Jan. 23, according to government data issued on Wednesday. Last week's build alone was almost 9 million barrels, taking stockpiles to nearly 407 million, the highest level since the government began keeping such records in 1982. . oil inventories. Oil prices had risen broadly earlier in the day after preliminary U.S. Data showed weekly jobless claims at a near 15-year low, indicating further strength in the world's largest economy. (Full Story) But crude futures in New York fell to an April 2009 bottom by midmorning, and only rose toward the close on short-covering. Prices tumbled after a report by oil services firm Genscape showed fresh builds of 1.6 million barrels at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for U.S. crude in the period of Jan. 23 through Jan. 27. Inventories of U.S. crude were already at record highs for the week ended Jan. 23, according to government data issued on Wednesday. Last week's build alone was almost 9 million barrels, taking stockpiles to nearly 407 million, the highest level since the government began keeping such records in 1982.

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
RM SEED
Indian RM Seed output in 2014-15 may be 7.0 million MT vs. 7.4 million MT in the previous year.
Latest sowing data shows, RM Seed was sowed in 6.49 million hectares across India vs. 7.04 million hectares in the corresponding period in the previous year.
A mixed trend was noted for RMSeed as markets recovered from the lower levels. Reports of skies clearing up over growing states of Rajasthan could enable a recovery in market sentiments. Once the rains recede, markets are likely to pick up as demand for Mustard Oil remains strong in Indian markets.
Reports of crop damage from parts of Rajasthan from recent rains also kept prices firm. Demand rose further for Mustard Oil amidst falling stocks ahead of the Festival season. Cool weather in growing states keep production prospects good though reports of damage to crop in some areas in Rajasthan from the recent rains supported the market sentiments.
As per Ministry of Agriculture, Rajasthan area coverage in Rabi A mixed trend was noted for RMSeed as markets recovered from the lower levels. Reports of skies clearing up over growing states of Rajasthan could enable a recovery in market sentiments. Once the rains recede, markets are likely to pick up as demand for Mustard Oil remains strong in Indian markets.
Reports of crop damage from parts of Rajasthan from recent rains also kept prices firm. Demand rose further for Mustard Oil amidst falling stocks ahead of the Festival season. Cool weather in growing states keep production prospects good though reports of damage to crop in some areas in Rajasthan from the recent rains supported the market sentiments.
As per Ministry of Agriculture, Rajasthan area coverage in Rabi season 2014-15 till 24 December was 26.40 lakh ha vs 29.73 lakh ha in 2013-14. The government has set a target of 29 lakh for this year. The fall in area was due to high temperature in Oct and lack of rains. Farmer are reportedly shift-ing to Barley and Wheat. Crops also faced germination problem due to the high Temperature.


Indian production is reduced on lower yields reflecting late planting and short monsoon season.
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