El Nino has been making waves since the year went off the ground and it continues to draw in closer and threatens the country in the face of deficit monsoon rainfall. In statistical context, El Nino paves the way for abnormal warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean and sparks off both floods and droughts in diverse terrains of the world. It is generally the case that El Nino hinges on measly monsoon rainfall that registers itself in the Indian sub-continent. The fact is implicated by statistical data, which holds hint of the fact that roughly 60% of all evolving El Nino years are droughts. However, there exist some exceptions which would just prove the rule.

There had been four El Nino years that landed in India between 1953 and 1963. These four years witnessed normal or above normal rainfall. Again, if El Nino has followed on from the last year, there does not exist a cat in hell’s chance for the monsoon in the second year coming to cropper, as opposed to first year of El Nino evolution where it falls by the wayside. The year 2014 witnessed evolving El Nino and drought (88% of the LPA) took the wind out of sails. The El Nino of 2015 holds over from last year and there does not exist even an ounce of possibility for its failure.

Rare instances of Successive Droughts

There exists a rare probability of back to back droughts and there has been only four instances that El Nino set its foot in India in the last 140 years. The previous year marked the evolution of El Nino which corresponded to the arrival of drought and all chips are betted on the normal monsoon rainfall this year.

Dynamic Models of Skymet

Skymet has been hammering away at formulating accurate dynamic models for a decade now and tests have been carried out on them since 2012. Skymet has successfully hit the nail on the head with right monsoon forecast since 2012. Moreover, Skymet has edged up closer to lay out correct prediction for one drought and one deficit in the past. Moreover, they have caught up on the success rate of 74% in terms of monsoon prediction for the past 30 years as per the reports churned out by our models. Further, the same models have been employed since January and these models have yielded reports that give a suggestion of normal monsoon for the year.