A slew of economic data in recent days has led analysts at New York-based asset management practice, Lead Capital Partners to dramatically trim forecasts for fourth quarter growth in the US economy.

The firm slashed US Q4 estimates from 0.8% to -0.1% after industrial production, retail sales and construction and export growth came in not only worse than expected, but by some considerable margin. “We think the anemic performance in the manufacturing and export-oriented sectors of the economy has contaminated the remainder of the economy,” David Eckhart, chief market strategist at Lead Capital Partners and, consequently, we’re more concerned about the potential for a recession at some stage this year.

Retail sales for December were down 0.1% following an upwardly revised 0.4% in November. Industrial production, which includes manufacturing, mining and utilities, contracted 0.4% after shrinking a revised 0.9% the previous month.

“Some commentators are blaming these data misses on the unseasonably warm winter but while fewer sales of winter clothing could theoretically impact upon overall retail sales, it’s hard to ignore the fact that US consumers have been handed a windfall in the form of cheaper gasoline prices and that really should have fed into higher sales especially during the festive season,” explained Eckhart.

Lead Capital Partners says that while it acknowledges the impact the strong dollar is having upon manufacturing and exports, it suggests that imports are being made considerably cheaper which is good for the country’s trade balances.

“There’s no doubt that a weaker dollar would help exports but that sector of the economy only accounts for 12% of economic output,” concluded Eckhart.

About Lead Capital Partners:
Lead Capital Partners is an independent investment management practice founded on the philosophy that an active, opportunistic and adaptable approach to investing provides our clients with the best chance for the realization of long-term positive returns irrespective of prevailing market environments.
It is our firm belief that the “buy and hold” investment strategy that has traditionally served investors to such great effect over the decades can, now, lead to significant losses in bear markets, or to little or no profit in markets that persist in trading in ranges unless they are actively managed by seasoned professionals such as those at Lead Capital Partners.