TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : - The Equity benchmark Nifty 50 oscillated between bulls and bears, as after a gap up opening, on Monday with marginal gains of 9 points or 0.10 percent at 8788. Nifty was up by 90 points before selling crept in Nifty fell by 100 points from its Intraday high of 8878 before stabilizing to close at 8809 up by 35 points. Incremental Policy reforms and transmission of rate cuts that scenario , The Nifty target around 9200-9300. The Fundamental aspect of Nifty P/E stood around 24.65. If we assume 18 per cent Compound Annual Growth rate for now, Then EPS may come around 431 and the fair value of Nifty is around 6900-9300 by this month. Federal Reserve chair Jennet Yellen was dovish in her Assessment of short-term rate hike. With an expectation no hike US FED has delivered a moderate stand on economy , growth , US FED said. Economic Activity has picked up and job gained were solid in recent month signalized the possibility of year end rate hike. Looking ahead Nifty has to sustain over 8925-8725 zone for further rally up-to 8995-9060. The Crucial Level is 8820-8780 down side and 8925-8975 is up side.
BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty Opened on flat note on Monday up by 35 points or 0.17 per cent at 19892. The Bank Nifty was in bigger fall of 400 points from intraday high of 20240 to 19830 on Monday trading session. Banking stocks were out performer along with strong participation from Public Sector Banks. Although the Private sector banks remain the best performer from the last 3-4 week , From This level the Index has strong support around 19720 and sustaining from last 17 trading sessions. The Sustaining above 19720-19980 zone Index will move toward 20500-20800 in near Term. The Bank Nifty Chart suggesting if it is able to sustain the level of 19800 level for Next week sessions, the next hurdle for Bank Nifty would be around 20540 or break below 19800 could lead toward 19500 level. Crucial Level for Bank Nifty is 20478-20985 up side or 19682-19464 is down side.

NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
Federal Reserve keeps key rate unchanged - Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid, on average. Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

Cabinet approves Railway and Union Budget merger - The Union Cabinet has approved scrapping of separate Railway Budget and merging it with the General Budget. The proposal was moved by the Finance Ministry after it received representations from some ministries that the annual budget exercise be completed before the new fiscal year begins on April 1 for streamlined allocation of funds. "We are merging the union budget with the Railway budget. There will be only one budget. The functional autonomy of the Railway to be maintained," Arun Jaitley said.
To facilitate this, the Budget Session of parliament will be called sometime before January 25, a month ahead of the current practice.

Loss in exports lead to job losses: ASSOCHAM study - Sharp drop in merchandise exports mainly contributed to a loss of 70,000 jobs during the second quarter of 2015 reinforcing a crucial point that the employment generation has to be led by the domestic demand in the wake of subdued global demand, an ASSOCHAM –Thought Arbitrage study noted. It said around 70,000 workers were retrenched in the second quarter of 2015. Livelihood opportunities in export units particularly shrank during this period. While slowdown in global demand compelled some of the units to retrench people from pay roll, the reduction was facilitated by the increasing contractualisation of jobs. "There is a concern because most of the export-oriented units in the economy are dependent on contractual workers. So, massive reduction in contractual jobs in these sectors might as well imply deteriorating conditions in the export units,” the paper said.
Given the subdued global economic scenario, rejuvenating the economy by exporting or utilising external trade remains a difficult proposition, if not immediately impossible. “Therefore, Indian economy has to look internally at the domestic economy to restart the Indian growth story. That is only possible if there is extra demand generation within the economy. Employment generation is the most important factor to generate such extra demand. More employment means extra purchasing power in the hands of the people, and subsequently more demand generated for all kinds of commodities and services”, ASSOCHAM Secretary General Mr D S Rawat said.

GST Council to hold first meeting tomorrow - The All powerful GST Council, which will decide on tax rates, exempted goods and threshold, will meet for the first time tomorrow as it races against time to iron out issues between Centre and states for rolling out the new indirect tax regime from April 1, 2017. The Goods and Services Tax Council is chaired by the Union Finance Minister and has Minister of State in charge of revenue and state finance ministers as members. The two-day meet of the GST Council beginning tomorrow is likely to take up the discussion on issues of dual control and threshold with states demanding that they be given the legal and administrative power for imposing tax on entities with turnover of up to Rs 1.5 crore. In their last meeting with Jaitley on July 26, states had made it clear that small businesses with turnover of Rs 1.5 crore and below should be taxed only in the hands of state.

Moody's to upgrade India's rating in two years if reforms are tangible - Moody's on Tuesday said it could upgrade India's rating in 1-2 years if it is convinced that the economic reforms are tangible. Moody's, which has a 'Baa3' rating with a positive outlook, said evidence of policymakers working towards a faster fiscal consolidation, reducing the debt-GDP ratio and addressing infrastructure and monsoon volatility challenges will determine an upgrade, going forward.We have a positive outlook on India. On balance, the risk is on the upside. We are continuously monitoring the rating. We see pressure building up in 1-2 years and any tangible change could bring about a change in rating," Moody's Sovereign Group Senior V-P Marie Diron told journalists. Moody's Investors Service had in April 2015 revised India's outlook to 'positive' from 'stable' and said it could upgrade rating in 12-18 months. India's step-wise reforms have been set in motion, but weak investment and banking risk may act as speed-breakers, Moody's Investors Service said in a report.




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