TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : The market has kick-started the week with mild gains. The Nifty down 4.50 points at 7894.80. Global developments and F&O expiry on Thursday keep the market volatile, Nifty managed to hit a four-month high in this week’s trade, but failed to sustain as traders turned cautious after a staggering rally in last two months. Fourth quarter earnings season has been a mixed bag so far. This is the second consecutive month of FII buying after four successive months of selling prior to March. FII money is one of the biggest movers of the Indian market. Hopes of further RBI rate cut, positive macro data and good monsoon forecasts mean that the tap may stay open for a while. On Tuesday the stock market staged a spectacular recovery after a sluggish start. The Nifty rallied 107 points or 1.4 percent at 7962, On Thursday The Bank of Japan left monetary policy steady, Also the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged citing slower growth in the US economy. The crucial level for Nifty is 8150-8280 up side and 7900-7850 is down side for next week.

BANK NIFTY : - The Bank Nifty opened in a positive notes on Monday at 16746 up by 43 points. The global rating agency has warned the Indian government over the bad loan situation. The Supreme Court on Tuesday asked the Narendra Modi government to overhaul the banking system to prevent bad loans and hasten recovery from defaulting borrowers, instead of acting as if everything is fine. The initiative for merger of PSU banks has to come from boards of the Banks concerned and the Government’s and RBI’s role would be that of a facilitator. From the Global Front The Bank of Japan left monetary policy steady, surprising several market players who were widely expecting a hefty dose of stimulus. And the Federal Reserve also kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged. The Bank Nifty Technically is bearish for short term, The Crucial level for Bank Nifty for Next week is 16980-17360 up side and 16650-16420 down side.
NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
RBI should have consulted the government before talking about UDAY: Piyush Goyal - After a report by the RBI which said that the UDAY scheme by the Power Ministry will have an adverse effect on the financials of state governments, Minister of Coal, Power and Renewable Energy has retorted by saying that he wish the RBI had talked to the government over the scheme and understood its implications.“I do wish they would talk to us and we will be able to satisfy them that the UDAY scheme is a win-win for everybody including the states,” Goyal said.

Government must provide more capital as PSBs can't tap markets: Moody's - Public sector banks will not be able to raise funds from the markets and government will have to provide capital support to them in the near term given their weak solvency position, Moody's has said. They could see negative pressure on their credit profile if the government does not revise upwards its capital infusion plans, Moody's Investors Service VP Financial Institutions Group Alka Anbarasu said. "Given the weak solvency position of many PSBs, we expect the remedial measures will require substantial external capital. With little chance of the banks accessing the capital markets in the near term, we expect much of the capital support will be required from the Indian government,"

Strong economic growth a key driver of NRI investment in India - India’s strong economic growth and depreciation of the rupee remain major driving forces of increased investment from overseas Indians in the country, finds a new report. India’s economy has overtaken China’s to become the world’s fastest growing major economy in late 2015. The economy grew by 7.3% in the last three months of the year compared to China’s 6.8% during the same period. While Indian consumer confidence has fallen over the year partly as a result of additional services tax, the Indian government has undertaken several initiatives to stimulate the country’s overall economic growth. These include recent interest rates cut, the launch of the Make in India program, reforms in the power generation industry, and strengthening of the country’s telecommunications and internet networks. It has also opened up key sectors such as railways, defense, insurance and medical devices to attract higher levels of foreign direct investment.

Moody's: Build-up in leverage poses varying risks for Asia Pacific sovereigns - Moody's Investors Service says that the increase in leverage across Asia Pacific over the last five years could weigh on sovereign credit quality. The sovereign risks could materialize either directly, where the debt increase has been concentrated in the public sector, or indirectly, where the rise in private sector leverage has been rapid. The report highlights that in addition to the pace of increase in and level of debt, several other factors determine risks to sovereign credit profiles. It notes that macroeconomic trends, asset buffers, income profiles and policy responses can all mitigate or exacerbate the credit impact that high leverage can have. Moody's report identifies the sovereigns that face risks from an accumulation of debt, and the source, whether via government, state-owned enterprise, corporate, household or bank balance sheets.

GST rollout, infra funding are a difficult task: Moody's - Implementation of the Goods and Services Tax and bridging large infrastructure deficit are a difficult task before the Indian government, Moody’s Investors Service said today.In a report, Moody’s said a history of double-digit inflation, elevated government debt, weak infrastructure and a complex regulatory regime have constrained India credit profile.“We also expect that some aspects of the government’s policy agenda such as the implementation of GST and bridging India large infrastructure deficit will still face an uphill climb,”it said. As a positive, Moody’s noted that easing of constraints on investment coupled with RBI’s inflation targeting and ongoing efforts to clean up bank balance sheets could propel growth.

Call drop case: TRAI can reconsider penalty if free calls are given for every call drop - Telecom Regulatory Authority of India on Tuesday told the Supreme Court that it is ready to reconsider the call drop penalty if the telecom companies agree to compensate consumers with an equal number of free calls. Attorney General Mukul Rohatgi, defending TRAI's stand said, "The regulator has to safeguard the interest of 100 crore telecom subscribers." Further he cited Telenor's plan wherein the Telco provides a free call as a compensation to every dropped call. AG Rohatgi appealed to the top telcos saying that if they agree to do so, TRAI will consider dropping the penalty, as per reports.

India Ratings: FY17 GDP growth revised downwards to 7.7% - India Ratings and Research has revised its gross domestic product growth forecast for FY17 downwards to 7.7% from its earlier forecast of 7.9%. Despite favourable prospects for agriculture due to an above normal monsoon, industrial recovery is proving to be a drag on the FY17 growth prospect. The resilience of Indian agriculture on monsoon has increased over the years. As a result, agriculture no longer witnesses a sharp decline in output and gross value added in the years of a sub-par monsoon. As the downside to agriculture has reduced due to a subpar monsoon so has the upside to agriculture with a favourable monsoon.

FM: Govt takes measures to deal with the issue of NPAs - The Union Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley said that the Government has taken various measures to deal with the issue of Non Performing Assets in Banking Sector especially in case of Public Sector Banks. The Finance Minister said that there are two categories of defaulters, viz. those who are unable to pay back due to economic slowdown both in domestic and global market and other reasons outside their control as well as wilful defaulters including loans sanctioned without due diligence by the banks. The Finance Minister said that the Government has taken various measures to deal with both these categories of defaulters. The Finance Minister Shri Jaitley was making his Opening Remarks at the Second Meeting of the Consultative Committee attached to the Ministry of Finance on the subject:“NPAs in Banking Sector”here.

India's current account deficit to print at US$25bn in FY2017: ICRA - ICRA expects India's current account deficit to widen modestly to USD 25 billion in FY2017, from an estimated USD 20 billion in FY2016, but be comfortably covered by capital inflows. A favourable monsoon after a gap of two years would have a mixed impact on trade in various sectors, boosting agricultural exports and limiting imports of crude oil and coal while enhancing the demand for gold.

✍ TOP ECONOMY NEWS
India stands to gain from the strict implementation of environmental norms and safety standards on Chinese speciality chemical manufacturing firms, that has resulted in the closure of several unorganised and small units in that country.

Aiming to drastically reduce the time taken for first examination of patent applications to 18 months from about 5-7 years, the government has initiated various steps, including hiring of more examiners.




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