✍ MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS

The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.4 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of state run banks and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) buying dollars. Further, weak market sentiments exerted downside pressure on the currency. The US Dollar Index (DX) traded lower by 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of unfavorable jobless claims and jobs opening data from the country. Further, upbeat market sentiments continued with downside movement in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 87.70 and closed at 87.75 on Thursday. Asian markets are trading on a negative note today on account of expectations that Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will call for early elections. China’s Industrial Production fell to 7.7 percent in October as against a rise of 8 percent in September. Fixed Asset Investment plunged to 15.9 percent in October from 16.1 percent a month ago. Retail Sales dropped marginally to 11.5 percent in last month with respect to 11.6 percent in September.
1. US Unemployment Claims gained to 290,000 for w/e on 8th Nov’14.
2. LME Copper stocks declined by 0.5 percent on Wednesday.
3. China’s Industrial Production fell to 7.7 percent in the last month.
4. New jobless claims in the US remaining near a 14-year low level.
5. German Final CPI was at negative 0.3 percent in the month of Oct’14

PRECIOUS METALS

Silver prices declined by 0.2 percent on Thursday on line with falling base metal prices. Weakness in the dollar index however cushioned sharp downside.

On the MCX, silver prices gained marginally by 0.03 percent and closed at Rs.34707/kg.
Gold prices gained marginally by 0.1 percent on Thursday, although falling crude oil prices and improving jobs data leading to the decreased bullions safe haven appeal as a hedge. Continued outflows from the ETF’s further exacerbated the fall in gold prices. Higher U.S. quits rate and new jobless claims remaining near a 14-year low suggest the U.S. job market is moving toward full health, undermining gold's appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty. On the MCX, gold prices gained by 0.13 percent and closed at Rs.25822/10 gms.


BASE METAL

Base metals pack on the LME traded on a negative note in yesterday’s trade after disappointing economic data from the US and China. Further, weakness in the DX along with decline in LME stocks could not restrict sharp downside. In the Indian markets, base metals traded lower in line with weakness in the international markets. LME copper prices plunged 1.1 percent yesterday as weak economic data from China suggested continued slack in the world's second largest economy, which looks on track to meet the government's annual 7.5 percent growth target. Also, weak jobs data from the US acted as a negative factor. However, decline in LME stocks by 1.1 percent coupled with weakness in the DX cushioned sharp downside in prices. Copper prices closed at $6607/tonne in yesterday’s trading session. On the MCX, red metal prices slipped 1 percent and closed at Rs.407.1/kg on Thursday.

ENERGY
Crude oil prices declined on both sides of the Atlantic with Brent and WTI crude falling by 3.3 percent and 3.8 percent respectively. Brent crude prices traded at a four year lows in yesterday’s session as stockpile surge at Oklahoma for U.S. crude frayed nerves of traders already worried about an oil glut. Prices were dragged further from comments by Saudi Arabia's oil minister that showed little will by the kingdom to cut output when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets on Nov. 27. On the MCX, crude oil prices declined by 2.4 percent and closed at Rs.4641/bbl.
Natural gas futures fell 4.21 percent on Thursday, the biggest daily decline since February, on forecasts for moderating weather later in November after a cold blast blows through the Midwest and Northeast over the next week or so. On the MCX, gas prices declined by 3.28 percent in tandem with decline in international markets.


✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
JEERA

Jeera futures closed lower due to selling pressure as supplies in the spot market stood higher. As per market source, temperature which is reportedly higher than crop requirement has slowed down the sowing process in producing states. Also, acreage is anticipated to be 30-35 percent lower as farmers are opting for other more lucrative crops like coriander. As well, the sustained export demand amid a supply crunch in the global market may limit sharp fall in prices. According to the report from Spices Board of India,the country is estimated to export 100000 tonnes worth Rs.1300 crores for the financial year April 2014 to March 2015. On Thursday, jeera arrivals in Unjha were around 12000 bags (1bag=55kg).


SOYABEAN
Indian oil seed complex prices closed mixed yesterday with Soy oil moving lower on overseas weakness. Soybean prices rose yesterday on sharp gains in overseas Soy meal prices. Rupee closed higher.Traders estimate this year’s crop between 9 – 10 million MT. USDA estimates Indian Soybean crop at 11.0 million MT. According to 1st Advance estimates for 2014-15 released by GoI, India’s output for Soybean is estimated at 11.82 million MT. Soy meal exports from India rose to 29,071 MT in October from 868 MT in September. India's oil meal exports in October 2014 were 218K MT vs. 375K MT in previous month. According to SEA, India's vegetable oil imports in September were 1.01 million MT from 1.32 million MT in August.
CBOT Soy complex prices ended lower yesterday with Soy oil prices moving lowest. Ideas of technical and producer selling in beans took prices lower. Lower Crude oil was a negative force for Soy oil prices. Brazil's government crop supply agency Conab forecast a 2014/15 Soybean crop of between 89.3 million MT and 91.7 million MT on Tuesday, narrowing the range from 88.8-92.4 million MT seen a month earlier. As of 9 November, US Soybeans were 90% harvested vs. 83% a year ago. According to CFTC CoT report, for the week ending 4 November, non commercial traders reduced their net short positions in CBOT Soybeans.

REFI. SOYA
Refined soy oil Dec futures traded on a negative note almost 0.93% lower due to sufficient supplies in the country and negative report released by US Agri. Deptt.
There is news that India’s food ministry want to double the import tax on Crude edible oils and raise that on refined by 50%, but waiting for approval and views of other ministers.
However US Department of Agriculture raised its estimate of the record harvest of Soy and sufficient supplies in the country will act as a negative factor for the prices.
According to NOPA, Soy oil stocks in August declined to 936.880 mn lbs from 1.214 bn lbs in August. (Source: Reuters)
India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices.
As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils in August increased 21% y-o-y to 1.05 mn tn.
Crude Soy oil imports in Sept ’14 increased 14.22% to 161,016 tn compared to 140,971 tn last year. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on Oct 1 stood at 715,000 tn, the trade body said, lower than 860,000 tn on Sept 1

CHANA
NCDEX Chana Dec. futures traded on a negative note due to profit taking on higher levels after making a new contract high of 3287 level preceding day. Demand of chana in physical market is good and also slow showing of Chana is supportive for the prices. Liquidation in physical market put pressure on the prices. For fy.2014-15 CCEA has increased MSP of Chana by Rs.75 to Rs.3175/qtl, Tur and Urad by Rs. 50 to at Rs.4350/qtl each while MSP of Moong was increased by Rs.100 to Rs. 4600/qtl. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, sowing of rabi pulses as on 31st October stands at 7.84 lakh ha as against 6.66 lakh ha last year. Sowing of kharif pulses stood at 10.23 mn ha as against 10.91 mn ha last year. The 4th Advance Estimates pegged total pulses output for 2013-14 at 19.27 mn tn, up from 18.34 mn tn earlier. 1st advance estimates have pegged kharif pulses output at 5.2 mn tn, down from 6.02 mn tn last year.
Total area covered under Rabi Pulses 2013-14 stood at 161.9 lakh ha as against 152.65 lakh ha last year. Chana sowing stood at 10.21 mn ha compared to 9.51 mn ha in the previous year.

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