✍ MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters on Thursday that OPEC will not cut its oil output. "That is right," Naimi told reporters in response to a question on whether OPEC had decided not to cut oil supplies. He was speaking after a five hour meeting of the producer group broke up.
Germany's Statistics Office on Thursday showed inflation harmonious to compare with other European countries dropped to 0.5 percent from 0.7 percent in October.
(Source: Reuters)


PRECIOUS METALS
Gold eased on Thursday, hurt by a sharp drop in oil prices, strength in the dollar and fresh outflows from bullion-backed funds, with traders cautious ahead of this weekend's Swiss referendum on central bank bullion assets.
News that oil cartel OPEC had opted not to cut output in the face of falling prices knocked benchmark Brent crude oil futures more than 4 percent to their lowest in four years.
Swiss voters go to the polls on Sunday to decide a motion that would oblige the Swiss National Bank to hold 20 percent of its reserves in bullion, repatriate gold from overseas, and undertake to make no gold sales.
If a 'yes' vote is passed, the Swiss central bank would have to buy about 1,500 tonnes of gold over the next few years, analysts say.
Investment interest in gold has suffered this year from expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy before other central banks.
Higher U.S. interest rates would lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, and would also benefit the dollar, in which the metal is priced Silver was down 1 percent at $16.30 an ounce.
Annual inflation in Europe's largest economy fell to its lowest level in nearly five years in November, suggesting the risk of deflation in the wider euro zone has not yet abated.
Preliminary figures from Germany's Statistics Office on Thursday showed inflation harmonized to compare with other European countries dropped to 0.5 percent from 0.7 percent in October, undershooting a consensus forecast of 0.6 percent. On the month, the cost of living was unchanged using this measure.


BASE METAL
Copper prices slipped on Thursday, weighed down by a strong dollar, although further falls were capped by support from monetary easing in top consumer China and an upturn in economic sentiment in Europe while a strong dollar capped gains.
Putting pressure on prices, the dollar rose against a basket of currencies, making commodities priced in the U.S. unit more expensive for holders of other currencies.
China's central bank refrained from draining funds from the money market on Thursday, the first time it had held off from open market operations in four months.
Also supporting the market was data showing morale in the euro zone rose for the second straight month in November and Germany's jobless rate hit a record low, offering tentative signs the bloc is avoiding outright stagnation.


ENERGY
Brent crude oil plunged as much as $6.50 a barrel on Thursday, and U.S. crude fell by nearly as much, posting the steepest one-day falls since 2011, after OPEC decided against cutting output despite a huge oversupply in world markets.
Asked whether the oil producer group had decided not to reduce production, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters: "That is right."
Oil prices have fallen by more than a third since June as increasing production in North America from shale oil has overwhelmed demand at a time of sluggish global economic growth.
Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had been discussing at their meeting in Vienna whether to agree a production cut in an attempt to re balance the global oil market.
Crude prices have been falling all week as traders and analysts scaled back expectations of an OPEC production cut, but the sharp dive after Thursday's meeting showed the decision was not fully priced in.

U.S. natural gas prices plunged sharply in holiday-thinned trade on Thursday, as updated weather forecasting models for the first week of December pointed to a return to mild weather, prompting investors to bet that utilities and homes will burn less natural gas as demand for heating falls.
Forecasts for milder temperatures to settle in across much of the U.S. in early December after a blast of cold air exits weighed heavily on prices.
Bearish speculators are betting on the mild weather to dampen demand for the heating fuel. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption









NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
JEERA
Jeera found some moderate sup-port at near the 12000 levels for Dec contract even as lack of strong trading activities kept short term market sentiments slight weak. Some more dips in the short term not ruled out. Falling stocks and higher temperatures in growing areas and improved Export demand (aided by a firm Dollar vs Re) supported prices. A cool temperature would be need-ed for next few weeks for the crop to grow satisfactorily. The tempera-tures are a bit on the higher side as of now in Gujarat — as per market sources. This is creating apprehen-sions of likelihood fall in productivity
The sowing progress in coming weeks would be important and determine the near term trend for the commodity. An expected pick up in sowing area could prevent too strong recovery for the commodity.
Rains earlier this year in Gujarat and Rajasthan have improved moisture content of the soil and this can have a beneficial impact on the sowing of new crop that has started. However a cool climate would be needed for better crop productivity. Effect of Dollar vs Re would be important in medium term when exports pick up. But till that hap-pens some more dips not ruled out .Good quality produce have ensured Jeera rates are fetching premium w.r.t. International markets. Low stocks in global trade and political unrest in Turkey and Syria have pushed export demand to India. India will remain the primary export-er for this commodity as of now. Jeera production in India is ex-pected to rise to 6.5-7 million bags of 55 kg each in 2014, from 4.5-5 million bags a year earlier, due to an expanded area under cultivation and favourable weather conditions.


CHANA

Chana traded with very high volatili-ty as the initial fall in rates was followed by short covering by end of the day. With prices having fallen a lot over last 2-3 days, demand picked up in the mandis. However weakness in the International markets kept pressure in the Indian market sentiments also—preventing any strong recovery. Bearish news in International mar-kets affected the market sentiments adversely. As per USDA, expected pulses production in USA is up by 8% to 2,232,630 metric tonne during 2014 from last year. On the other hand, reports from Canada indicate chickpea production there expected to fall to 0.14 million MT in 2014-15—down from 0.18 million MT in 2013-14due to lower yield.
In Indian markets, reports of lower sowing due to prevailing low rates, good demand from millers and Govt agencies and a rise in MSP from Rs 3100/Q to Rs 3175/Q had supported prices. Pulses sowing falls 5.5% in Raja-sthan. As per Govt figures, Chana was sown in 11.23 ha till 17 Nov in the state, while last year’s figure till 13 Nov was 11.93 lakh ha. Though total pulses farming till 17 Novem-ber has covered near 65% of its acreage, but it is around 5.5% less than previous year’s data
As per Ministry of Agriculture, rabi pulses 2014-15 coverage till Nov 21 is down by 11% to 80.74 lakh Ha as compared with last year’s area coverage of 91.19 lakh hectare during the corresponding week. The area planted under chana is also down to 54.61 Lakh Ha. against 64.76 lakh ha. in same correspond-ing week during last year. As per 1st Advanced crop estimates for 2014-15 by Govt of India, India is likely to produce Kharif Foodgrains of 120.27 million tonnes, which is down by 8.97 million tonnes from the record 129.24 million tonnes achieved in Kharif 2013-14. Decline in area under Tur and Moong has also affected production of Kharif Pulses which is estimated at 5.20 million tonnes as against their production of 6.02 million tonnes during Kharif 2013-14. Tur production estimated at 2.74 million tonnes and Urad at 1.15 million tonnes.



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