MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
1. The European Union's statistics office Euro stat said on Friday that consumer prices in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose by 0.2 percent year-on-year in July, as in June.

2. China needs to ensure that risks presented by a slowing economy do not morph into social risks, the state planner said on Friday, acknowledging the problems the country faces should unemployment rise

3. The U.S. labor costs in the second quarter recorded their smallest increase in 33 years as workers earned less in commissions and bonuses, in what appeared to be a temporary wage growth setback against the backdrop of diminishing labor market slack. 

4. OPEC oil output reached the highest monthly level in recent history in July, a Reuters survey found on Friday, as Saudi Arabia and other key members show no sign of wavering in their focus on defending market share instead of prices. 

✍ GOLD
Gold continues to show the negative trend. Gold August contract is bearish for both short term and intra day at India's MCX. Gold has fallen back again after a brief recovery earlier this week which ended its worst losing streak in 20 years, after the Federal Reserve hinted at a rate rise in the near future pushed the dollar towards fresh multi-year highs.

Federal Reserve rate-setters voted as expected on Thursday to keep rates on hold, but a shift in language in its statement fuelled speculation that its increasingly hawkish stance will lead to a hike at its next meeting in September. Despite ostensibly maintaining an equivocal position, the suggestion that risks to the economy are "nearly balanced" spurred markets and pushed the dollar up towards the high watermark reached earlier this year. Gold is quoted in dollars and a positive move in the greenback tends to put downward pressure on prices as it reduces buying power.

✍ CRUDE OIL
Short term trend for MCX Crude Oil August contract is likely to be bearish. For intraday positive trend can be expected, Support for short term is at 2800 and resistance at 3250,

MCX Crude Oil August contract has been trading down by -0.32per cent to 3138 level at 10.52am on Thursday.Oil prices rose Wednesday on unexpected declines in U.S. crude-oil supplies and production. Prices have slumped this month on renewed fears that the global glut of crude oil could last longer than investors initially expected.

This comes as production in the U.S. and elsewhere continues to exceed consumption. Wednesday's data offered some hints that the oversupply of crude oil is starting to shrink, but analysts warned that the trend might not continue and prices could resume their decline.

Though refineries processed less crude into gasoline and other fuels compared with the week before, crude-oil inventories still declined due to a drop in imports and production. U.S. crude-oil production fell by 145,000 barrels a day to 9.4 million barrels a day, the largest one-week decline since October 2013. Excluding Alaska, which saw a small rise in output, the drop totaled 151,000 barrels a day.

Softer economic data out of Europe and China may indicate weak demand growth in the next couple of months. A Senate panel has approved energy legislation that would lift the 40-year-old ban on crude oil exports and open some areas of the Outer Continental Shelf to oil and gas exploration.

Oil futures finished lower Thursday, with U.S. prices logging their first loss in three sessions as pressure from strength in the U.S. dollar outweighed support from recent data showing sizable weekly declines in crude supplies and production.They were still poised for a weekly gain following Wednesday’s spike on news of weekly declines in both U.S. crude production and inventories.

✍ COPPER
Copper slipped on Thursday, weighed down by a firmer dollar after the U.S. Federal Reserve set the scene for a possible interest rate rise and on jitters about China after its stock market retreated.
China shares fell again on Thursday after a report that banks were trying to get to grips with their financial exposure to the stock market slump in June. A rise in LME copper inventories for the second straight day highlighted oversupply in the global market for the metal, used in construction and power. However, in a sign consumer demand in China was brightening, bonded copper premiums jumped by $10 to $85, before steadying on Thursday, taking premiums up to the highest since mid-March.
Nickel also pressured by oversupply closed down after LME stocks rose again. x The Dollar Index extended gains against the other major currencies on Thursday,

after data showing that U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter added expectations for a rate hike later this year. The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 2.3% in the three months to June. First quarter growth was revised up to 0.6% from a previously reported contraction of 0.2%. The daily inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed a decline in the inventory levels of Aluminum, Lead and Zinc on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Copper and Nickel stocks rose on Wednesday. The weekly inventory data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) showed a decline in the inventory levels of Lead and Zinc. Inventories of Copper, Aluminum and Nickel increased last week. Copper and Nickel ended lower on Thursday on MCX, tracking weak overseas prices.


✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ AGRI UPDATE
Agri markets staged a moderate recovery as firmness was seen for Spices, Guar and Oil complex after the recent huge dips. Crude Oil recovery supported market sentiments for Guar that had fallen a lot over last few months; Chana too recovered on lower stocks.

Chana rates kept finding strong support at these levels on improved demand. Better sowing reports limited the uptrend however. Rates did find support from lower production, low stocks and improved demand.

Spices firmed up as demand started rising at these very low levels; Oil complex rates found very strong support at these lower levels and supported further by recovery in International markets.

✍ SOYABEAN
Sideways trend is likely for NCDEX Soybean futures in short term. Short term support NCDEX August contract is seen at 3200 and resistance at 3400. Futures market on Thursday ended with a soft note amid lack of positive trade leads from the major centres of MP. Developments in global soy bean markets continued generating nega-tive tone, and similar was the tendency in other Kharif oilseeds.Sowing reports continue to remain above normal as the latest government reports indicate the total sown area till 24th July has risen to 693.83 lakh ha vs 550.42 lakh ha same period last year. As regards area coverage under soybean cultivation as on date, the crop might cross 100 lakh hectares against last year’s total of 110 lakh hectares. The Monsoon has showed some revival in last few weeks therefore enhancing the likelihood of the crop condition.The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) officials are currently expecting soybean production between 100 and 110 lakh hectares.

✍ CHANA
Chana August contract is likely to trade bullish for short term and sideways for intra day. Short term support is seen at 4500 and resistance at 4700.
As per latest Govt reports, the area under Kharif Pulses has risen to 55.99 lakh ha as on 17th July vs 23.92 lakh ha same period last year. Above normal rains in Central and South India have improved sowing, keeping prices down for Chana in June. Month of July however saw a bounceback as rainfall activities slowed down. That is however again expected to pick up in coming days. Import of pulses increased to fulfil domestic consumption after a fall in pulses production. As per latest estimate of Finance Ministry pulses import has risen more than 20% in May. India consumes around 253-240 lakh ton pulses annually but in 2014-15 pulses production has fallen to 173 lakh ton from 193 lakh tons in 2013-14 due to unfavourable weather indicating more import in coming months.In Australia, sowing of Chickpea continues and it should be finished by end of June as per sources. Weather condition in Australia is favourable therefore yields are likely to improve this year thereby making a decent surplus for exporting to leading consuming like India. Harvest of Chick-peas in Australia normally commences in September. Australian chickpea markets have firmed this year following last year’s crop failure in India. Australia normally exports around 95% of its chickpea crop to countries like India, Bangladesh and UAE.

✍ RM SEED
Indian Oilseed complex prices closed mixed yesterday. Rupee ended flat. According to IMD, as of 29 July, monsoon rains in India were 3% below normal. It said rains in July and August could be less than normal. Kharif sowing progress - area of 14.30 million hectares were covered by oilseeds as of 24 July including 10.48 million hectares of Soybean crop.
Soy meal exports from India were at 2,098 MT in June 2015 vs. 14,046 MT in May 2015 and 2,637 MT in June 2014. Total oilmeal exports in June 2015 were 137K MT vs. 121K MT in May 2015 and 207K MT in June 2014. India veg oil imports fell to 1.01 million MT in June from 1.35 million MT in May and 0.86 million MT in June 2014. According to 3rd Advance estimates for 2014-15 released by GoI, India’s output for Soybean is estimated at 10.70 million MT and that of RM Seed at 6.75 million MT.

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