MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ GLOBAL UPDATE
Iraq's government would consider selling crude through Iran should talks with the autonomous Kurdish region on an oil revenue-sharing agreement fail, a senior oil ministry official in Baghdad told Reuters.
Gold World no. 1 copper miner Codelco produced more copper in the first half of 2016 than a year ago, but made a financial loss, and the chief executive said on Friday that the company position was "extremely fragile.
SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, said its holdings stood at 956.59 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.
ExtendingHoldings of the largest silverbacked exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's iShares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 11100.66 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.
Nigeria's military said on Saturday it had launched a new offensive against militants in the oil-producing Niger Delta, killing five and arresting 23. Armed groups have claimed responsibility for a series of attacks on oil and gas pipelines in the southern region, reducing the country's oil output by 700,000 barrels day

✍ GOLD
Gold traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as investors waited for clues on whether the US Federal Reserve would hike interest rates this year. At the end of the week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to address a gathering of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Recent hawkish comments from some policymakers have raised investors' expectations that Yellen might also take a less cautious tone.

Gold for delivery in October dropped Rs 91, or 0.29%, to Rs 31,288 per 10 grams in a business turnover of 252 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange. In a similar fashion, the metal for delivery in far-month December was trading down Rs 73, or 0.23%, at Rs 31,578 per 10 grams in 7 lots. Market analysts said the fall in gold futures was mostly in step with a weak trend overseas after a Federal Reserve official signalled that an increase in US interest rates is still possible this year, hurting demand for the precious metal as a safe-haven investment. Meanwhile, gold prices fell 0.16% to USD 1,336.50 an ounce in Singapore today.

India's gold demand fell significantly in the first half of 2016. World Gold Council data show the combined demand for jewellery and investment at only 247 tonnes. Import during January-June was 248 tonnes, 42 per cent lower than the corresponding period last year and lowest since 2009. Even in calendar years 2013 and 2014, when the trade was under severe regulatory stress in India, demand and imports were higher than seen in 2016 so far. Estimates peg imports in 2016 at 650 tonnes, after taking into account some recovery expected in rural demand, led by a good monsoon. However, this will be the lowest after 2009, when imports were 559 tonnes. Notably, the trend has continued after June. Sudheesh Nambiath, lead analyst for precious metals at GFMS Thomson Reuters, said: "In July, imports fell 78 per cent year-on-year to 20.8 tonnes, the lowest since September 2013. Has the cycle of Indian gold imports hit the trough? Possibly, yes. experts, is similar in August. The domestic price continues to trade $25 an ounce lower than the landed cost of imported gold, making imports unviable. Bachhraj Bamalva, director, All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation, said: "Due to high import duty and several measures implemented by the government in the past few quarters to disincentivise black money, gold demand saw a huge impact and our estimate is that 2016 is likely to end with 650 tonnes of imports. If demand improves significantly, in the most optimistic scenario, imports might be 700 tonnes." Apart from anti-black money measures like providing the income tax PAN for purchase of jewellery in cash above Rs 2 lakh and excise duty on jewellery, a sharp increase in global gold prices and better returns in other asset classes like equities has lured buyers away. However, even as Indians are not buying as much gold as in the past, experts say one should not write off the yellow metal. Jean-François Lambert, managing partner, Lambert Commodities, says: "So long as India is India, its love affair with gold will endure."

Gold recovered by Rs. 100 to Rs31,250 per 10 grams on Saturday on fresh buying by jewellers at the domestic spot market to meet retailers' demand even as the metal weakened overseas. Silver also rebounded by Rs 280 to Rs 44,700 per kg due to increased off-take by industrial units and coin makers. Traders said fresh buying by jewellers to meet festive season demand from retailers led to the recovery in the precious metal prices. They said, however, a weak trend overseas capped the gain.

Globally, gold fell 0.08 per cent to $1,320.50 an ounce in New York on Friday after the US Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen said the case for an increase in interest rate has strengthened, in an address to central bankers in Wyoming . In the national capital, gold of 99.9 per cent and 99.5 per cent purity went up Rs 100 each to Rs 31,250 and Rs 31,100 per 10 grams, respectively. The metal had lost Rs 100 on Friday. Sovereign, however, remained flat at Rs 24,300 per piece of eight grams in limited deals. Tracking gold, silver ready recovered Rs 280 to Rs 44,700 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 115 to Rs 43,975 per kg. On the other hand, silver coins continued to be traded at the previous level of Rs 75,000 for buying and Rs 76,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

Gold discounts in India fell to nearly three-month lows this week while fresh buying gathered some steam elsewhere in Asia as price corrections and festive buying lifted demand for the yellow metal. The safe-haven asset, which is highly sensitive to interest rates, has declined more than one per cent this week as upbeat US economic data boosted expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve this year. In India, the second-biggest gold consumer, dealers were offering discounts of up to $25 an ounce over official domestic prices, the lowest since the first week of June, and down from up to $52 last week.

✍ CRUDE OIL
In volatile market, crude oil prices still on slippery ground Oil prices rise in thin Asian trade; production freeze may occur Oil prices retreat from 2016 highs on OPEC output boost. Supply worries wane, but for how long?, Oil rises as lower output tightens market, outweighs weak China data. Oil prices fell early on Wednesday as an unexpected build in US crude stocks weighed on markets, along with concerns that Chinese crude demand could falter as Beijing clamps down on alleged tax evasion in the oil industry. International Brent crude oil futures were trading at $ 49.57 a barrel at 0054 GMT, down 39 cents, or 0.8%, from their last close. US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 46 cents, or 1%, at $47.64 a barrel. Robust Chinese crude demand growth has been driven by independent refiners, also know as teapots, who began to import crude last June after obtaining government crude import quotas and licences. But Beijing's crackdown on alleged tax evasion in the oil industry, targetting the teapots, threatens to put a lid on Chinese demand. "The question now is whether the teapots will start cutting runs," a Singapore-based trader said, adding that falling Chinese demand would be a double whammy for the oversupplied crude market.

Oil prices dipped in early trading on Friday after the Saudi energy minister tempered expectations of strong market intervention by producers during talks next month. International benchmark Brent crude oil prices were trading at $ 49.55 per barrel at 0114 GMT, down 12 cents from their previous close. US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 7 cents at $47.26 a barrel. Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told Reuters late on Thursday that "we don't believe any significant intervention in the market is necessary other than to allow the forces of supply and demand to do the work for us," adding that the "market is moving in the right direction" already.




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