MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
✍ Bullion
Gold edged up on Friday following three days of declines, but was heading for its first weekly drop in three as a stronger dollar and higher equities kept investor interest in check. Bullion climbed to a three-week high on Tuesday, only to give up gains as world stocks rose to their highest levels since late December on Thursday, boosted by robust Chinese economic data and a surge in oil prices earlier this week. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,229.06 an ounce by 0941 GMT, following a drop of 1.3% in the previous session. It was heading for a 1% loss for the week.Gold prices have steadied after posting their biggest quarterly rise in nearly 30 years in the three months to March, driven by a reining in of expectations that the US Federal Reserve will push ahead with several rate hikes this year."We are seeing central banks having separation anxiety with their stimulus policies and so much stimulus tends to devalue currencies and that's the follow through from negative real rates," ETF Securities analyst Martin Arnold said."It is a cost for people to hold cash and fixed income and it devalue fiat currencies, so people are still turning to gold."Higher interest rates would lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, while boosting the dollar.Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lock hart on Thursday said he no longer expects to advocate for a US interest rate hike in April, but added there is still time for two or three rate hikes this year.The Fed will raise interest rates twice this year, most likely in June, but the probability has faded on signs of a weak start to the year, inflation that is still tame and a brittle global backdrop, a Reuters poll showed.Assets in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell to 806.82 tonnes on Thursday, the lowest in a month.Among other precious metals, silver was on track to post a 5% weekly gain, its biggest jump in six weeks. It was up 0.3% at $16.19 an ounce, after hitting its highest level since October earlier this week.Platinum was headed for its third straight weekly gain, but was down 0.6% at $983.50 an ounce, while palladium fell 0.3% at $559.40 but was poised for its best week in six with a 4.5% rise.European car sales rose 5.7% in March, industry data showed on Friday, helped by discounts and other incentives. Platinum and palladium are used in auto catalysts to clean up exhaust emissions.
SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, said its holdings stood at 812.46 up 5.64 tonnes, from previous business day. Holdings of the largest silver backed exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's i shares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10366.70 down 29.59 tonnes, from previous business day.Gold imports are likely to drop 41% in April from that a year ago, a development that augurs well for the Narendra Modi government's efforts to keep current account deficit under control.San Francisco Fed President John Williams, said in his comments that he expects two – three rate hikes this year and when it happens the markets are likely not to go volatile. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's top gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.33 percent to 815.14 tonnes on Tuesday. Given the high probabilities of rate hikes from Fed the rally in gold is likely to run into resistance shortly , at the same time as the ETF flows have also started to consolidate we might see gold prices nudging lower from current levels. For the day we therefore recommend a sell in gold.

✍ Crude Oil
As per closing basis, WTI International posted gains around 4.50%, registering at $42.17/ bbl, whereas gains in Brent crude oil were around 4.30%, registering at $44.69/bbl . MCX crude oil showed gains around 4.35%, registering at Rs.2782/bbl . Partially supported by expected products side inventory withdrawals and partially by some of the positive outcome from the upcoming Doha meet, crude prices got catalyzed yesterday.Apart from this, with continuous decline in US crude production levels could push down their average levels below 9 million barrels per day this time. A deal to freeze oil output by OPEC and non-OPEC producers fell apart on Sunday after Saudi Arabia demanded that Iran join in despite calls on Riyadh to save the agreement and help prop up crude prices. It was the worst possible outcome for oil producers at their weekend meeting in Doha, with their failure to reach even a weak agreement showing very publicly their divisions and inability to act in their own interests. North Dakota's oil output is expected to resume large declines in March and April after a smaller-than-expected slide in February, a state regulator said on Friday, as producers continue to focus on the most economical drilling areas. Kuwait reduced its crude oil output and refining production on Sunday as part of an emergency plan to help the OPEC member deal with the largest petroleum workers' strike in years

✍ Base Metal
Metal for delivery in far-month June contracts edged higher by Rs 2.20, or 0.69 per cent, to Rs 322 per kg in a business volume of 92 lots.Globally, copper for delivery in three months rose 2.2 per cent to USD 4,766.50 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange ( LME).Analysts said that apart from pick-up in domestic demand, a firming overseas trend after data showed a strong recovery in China's exports in March, mainly influenced copper futures here.China is the world's biggest consumer of industrial metals. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in May gained Rs 4.30, or 0.75 per cent, to Rs 577.80 per kg, in a business turnover of six lots. The metal for delivery in April rose by Rs 4.10, or 0.72 per cent, to trade at Rs 571.70 per kg in 644 lots.
Analysts said apart from increased domestic demand from alloy-makers, firmness in metal at the London Metal Exchange, influenced nickel prices at futures trade.

Industrial metals fell on Friday after strong Chinese economic data raised fears that government stimulus programmes in the top metals consumer are not sustainable, and as the market also looked ahead to a key meeting of oil producers.Heavy rains in central Chile have prompted global miner Anglo American Plc and state-owned producer Codelco to temporarily suspend operations at two major copper mines with combined annual capacity of 880,000 tonnes. Aluminum Bahrain (Alba) has appointed Bechtel as contractor for the planned $3.5 billion expansion of its production facilities, it said in a bourse statement on Sunday. South Korea bought 1,000 tonnes of Belgian zinc for July 29 arrival via a tender, the state-run Public Procurement Services said on its website. China's nickel prices posted their biggest daily rise in nearly five months mid-week, boosted by speculation about planned state purchases and on reduced availability of nickel pig iron, an alternative used in stainless steel production, traders said.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
With above normal monsoon rainfall expected in 2016, the country is likely to get bumper production of rice, see increase in production of oilseeds and pulses and set stage for excellent rabi production. However, consumers will have to pay hefty price for at another five to six months for pulses till the next harvest hits markets and for sugar, currently priced at Rs 45/kg in retail, as good monsoon will not help cut the expected sugar production deficit in 2016-17. Even if the monsoon is delayed till the third week of June in Marathwada, it may not affect cotton and soyabean much. This year, we want to give a loud message for planting desi cotton, which gave yields comparable to Bt cotton due to drought conditions.


State-run Food Corporation of India (FCI) has invited bids from the scheduled banks for raising short-term loan of Rs 20,000 crore for one month period. To meet out its short term fund requirement for procurement and distribution of food grains, the Corporation is considering raising short term loans from the scheduled Banks only for one month tenure, 339.


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