MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ GLOBAL UPDATE
U.S. industrial production rose more than expected in July, according to Federal Reserve data released on Tuesday.
The Labor Department said on Tuesday that the flat reading in its Consumer Price Index was the weakest since February and followed two straight monthly increases of 0.2 percent. In the 12 months through July, the CPI rose 0.8 percent after increasing 1.0 percent in June. 
U.S. housing starts unexpectedly rose in July as building activity increased across the board, supporting the view that investment in residential construction will rebound after slumping in the second quarter.
The American currency declined 0.9 percent on Tuesday and slid to a seven week low as data showed flat inflation in July, underscoring the Federal Reserve’s case for leaving interest rates on hold. Further downside was restricted as the influential New York Fed President William Dudley reminded investors that a September rate increase is still on the table

✍ BULLION
Gold edged lower on yesterday as hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve officials raised bets on a rate hike this year, with traders waiting for minutes from the last Fed policy meeting for more clues. New York Fed President William Dudley said a rate hike in September was possible, while Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the US economy is likely strong enough for at least one rate increase before the end of 2016, with two a possibility. U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in July as the cost of gasoline fell for the first time in five months and underlying inflation moderated, while U.S. housing starts unexpectedly climbed and industrial production rose more than forecast in the same month. Federal funds futures fell in the wake of comments from New York's Dudley, who said the U.S. central bank could possibly raise interest rates in September if the economy improves further. This suggested that traders saw a 55 percent chance for the Fed to raise rates in December, up from 42 percent on Monday. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart later said the U.S. economy is likely strong enough for at least one interest rate increase before the end of 2016, However, recent positive data from the US only raised confusion regarding the timing of interest rates. U.S. factory production increased in July while home construction unexpectedly accelerated to the fastest pace in five months. Earlier, the Commerce Department said Friday, U.S. retail sales were flat in July, disappointing forecasts for a 0.4% rise. Besides, July producer price index showed a decline of 0.4%, the largest drop since September 2015. Also, data showed Japan’s economy nearly stalled in the second quarter, growing by an annualized 0.2% from April through June.


✍ ENERGY
The dollar's tumble to an eight-week low also supported crude prices, as did the loss of more than 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Nigerian output to militant attacks and pipeline problems. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will probably revive talks on freezing oil output levels when it meets non-OPEC nations next month, OPEC sources told Reuters, citing Saudi Arabia's wish for higher prices. Russian and OPEC energy officials discussed oil markets at a meeting in Vienna, Russia's Energy Ministry said. Another "energy dialogue" between Russia and OPEC has been scheduled there for October. Prices pared some gains in after market trade after data from the American Petroleum Institute showing an unexpected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles was overshadowed by surprise hefty builds in gasoline and distillates, indicating the glut in refined oil products was growing. Many analysts were skeptical producers would cut a deal. An OPEC production freeze plan in April was scuttled by a Saudi Arabia that was keen then to protect market share.Oil prices jumped the most in a month, rising more than 4 percent last week, after comments from the Saudi oil minister about possible action to stabilize prices triggered a round of buying and the International Energy Agency forecast crude markets would tighten in the second half of 2016. According to the weekly American Petroleum Institute (API) report U.S. crude oil inventories are down just over 1 million barrels for the week ended 12 August, , but U.S. gasoline inventories are up over 2 million barrels in the biggest increase in six months. However, sharp upside was capped as the oil minister of Nigeria, another OPEC member, said Monday that a deal within the 14-country group is unlikely next month.
Natural gas advanced partially in sympathy with stronger oil prices after forecasts for milder temperatures, Jim Ritterbusch of Chicagobased oil markets consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note. He added that buying interest was constrained by cooler temperature trends that were beginning to stretch toward the end of August. Such weather usually translates to reduced need for air conditioning, meaning also less burning of gas for power consumption

✍ BASE METAL
Besides, Chile’s Codelco, the world's top copper miner, may soon change its focus from cost reductions to output cuts, as the stateowned miner faces what its chief executive called the “worst crisis ever” since created in 1976. However, sharp upside was capped as weak data from the US and China remains a cause of concern. China’s fixed asset investment (FAI) for the January-to-July period rose 8.1 percent, marking the slowest growth since 1999. Copper eased by 0.25 per cent to Rs 320.40 per kg in futures trade today today as traders trimmed positions amid sluggish demand at the domestic spot markets. At Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in August month declined by 80 paise, or 0.25 per cent to Rs 320.40 per kg in business turnover of 870 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in November contracts shed 70 paise, or 0.21 per cent to Rs 326.80 per kg in 26 lots


NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
The fourth low-pressure area in a series in the Bay of Bengal has intensified a round and is forecast to become a depression by Wednesday. This is the second successive time that a monsoon depression will take shape in the Bay; the preceding one had gone on to become a deep depression to preside over heavy rainfall in East and Central India. The busy state of theBay from early this month indicates strong monsoon conditions but the gains are accruing only for the northern half of the country. According to India Met Department, yet another low-pressure area might materialise over the Bay in another five days (around August 20) that will sustain the monsoon over East and Central India. But the southern half might continue to suppressed rain conditions since, like in all preceding cases, the rain-driving ‘low’ will be located too far away for comfort. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology attributed this to the displacement from the Indian Ocean region of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave towards the North-West Pacific/South China Sea. (Source: HBL)
The Western India Sugar Mills Association (WISMA) has appealed to the Centre to intervene and restore the exemption granted earlier on the levy on ethanol in the interests of the sugar industry. In a representation sent to the chairman of the Central Excise and Customs, the association has objected to the withdrawal of the exemption since this would have an impact on the committed supplies for the industry producing ethanol from molasses generated from cane crushed in the sugar season of 2015- 16. The exemption was issued by the Central Excise and Customs in June 2015. (Source: FE)

✍ SOYABEAN
The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) has urged the Narendra Modi government to increase duty on imported crude soybean oil to 37.5% and 45% on refined soybean oil, which is the WTO bound rate. This will check large scale import of cheap soybean oil and enable the domestic industry to start soybean meal exports again. It will also encourage soybean and other oilseed growers, the association feels. In a letter to the Prime Minister, SOPA chairman Davish Jain has said that the soybean processing industry has been going through one of its toughest periods for the last 3 years and many of the units have had to close down. The major reason for this is large scale import of cheap edible oils including soybean oil at low rate of duty which has pushed up our prices of soybean meal and made us uncompetitive in the world market.As on 12 Aug, Indian farmers have planted soybean on 112.3 lh, up by 0.3% compared to last year sowing data. Soybean sowing is now nearing an end, and total acreage this year is likely to remain around last year's level of 116 lh, despite the sharp drop in sowing Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. In Madhya Pradesh, acreage was lagging 8.1% on year, while in Rajasthan; it was lagging by 7.3%, as farmers had switched to pulses and other crops but acreage increase in Maharashtra and Gujarat. U.S. soybean prices fell pressured by good weather and signs the U.S. oilseed crop remains in prime health. There is a forecast of beneficial rains for the U.S. Midwest this week and later in the month as the crop continues to set pods. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday said 72 percent of the soybean crop was in good to excellent condition, steady from a week ago and above last year's 63 percent.




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