Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 14 July 2015


Posted July 14, 2015 by ways2capital

Gold scaled higher on Friday, further off a four-month low, as the dollar tumbled against the euro on signs of progress in Greece's efforts to secure fresh funding.

 
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
✍ BULLION
Gold scaled higher on Friday, further off a four-month low, as the dollar tumbled against the euro on signs of progress in Greece's efforts to secure fresh funding. Spot gold was up 0.2 per cent at $1,161.88 an ounce by 1029 GMT. Prices touched $1,146.75 on Wednesday, their lowest since March 18, when the dollar was boosted by weakness in the euro on Greece and the tumble in Chinese stock markets.
US gold for August delivery gained 0.2 per cent at $1,161.70 an ounce. The euro climbed 1.2 per cent against the dollar, making dollar-denominated assets such as gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies. "Gold is getting some support from the stronger euro but if we get a deal with Greece on Sunday, it should be bearish for gold because it removes any risk," Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said. "The major driver is the U.S. because we have Yellen speaking today and markets will be watching that for any clues about the rate hike." Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak on Friday on the U.S. economic outlook at 1630 GMT. "No doubt, gold has been a profound disappointment for the bulls over the past few months ...to see repeated rallies fizzle," INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir wrote.

Physical demand remained tepid this week as prospective investors in China chased bargains in equities after a market rout, while those in India delayed purchases. The metal in India was still sold at a discount to the global benchmark. Chinese stocks rose sharply for a second day on Friday after Beijing moved to arrest a rout that pulled down key indexes by around 30 per cent from mid-June, banning shareholders with large stakes in listed firms from selling. Also aiding gold, the International Monetary Fund trimmed its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3.3 per cent from a previous estimate of 3.5 per cent, citing recent weakness in the United States.
Silver was up 0.5 per cent at $15.44 an ounce, palladium rose 1.7 per cent to $648.50 an ounce and platinum gained 1.4 per cent to $1,032.50 an ounce

✍ ENERGY
Crude oil prices bounced on Thursday on strong economic data from Japan and Germany, and as Chinese shares picked up after the government launched new steps to halt a rout in its stock markets. Front-month US crude futures were up 80 cents at $52.45 a barrel by 0745 GMT, but were still almost 8 percent lower than at the end of last week. Brent crude was 70 cents higher at $57.75 a barrel, though still 4 per cent below last Friday.Chinese stocks rallied on Thursday after the securities regulator banned shareholders with large stakes in listed firms from selling, in Beijing's most drastic step yet to stem a sell-off that has roiled global financial markets.

Chinese police were investigating clues pointing to potentially "malicious" short-selling of Chinese shares, state news agency Xinhua said on Thursday. Demand for oil was also
supported by the return from maintenance of a 120,000 barrels per day crude crude distillation unit in Japan, where machinery orders hit a 7-year high in May. German exports rose at their fastest pace this year in May, boosting expectations that Europe's largest economy would pull off stronger growth in the second quarter after expanding modestly in the first. Traders said downward momentum in oil had been broken by two days of gains and sentiment was more positive on Thursday. "Supports held after the sharp sell-off on Monday and these supports were not seriously tested yesterday," said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at London brokerage . "Oil is being pressured on multiple fronts, and China's equity wobble, the prospect of Iran's re-entry to the market and low liquidity all add up to an extremely fraught environment," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. A surprise increase in U.S. stockpiles despite the peak-demand American summer driving season added to global oversupply as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia produce at near-record levels.

✍ BASE METAL
Copper
Copper futures edged higher 0.32 per cent to Rs 360.80 per kg amid positive Asian cues and pickup in spot demand at domestic markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in August rose Rs 1.15, or 0.32 per cent, to Rs 360.80 per kg, with a turnover of 1,219 lots. The metal for delivery in November contracts edged up by 95 paise, or 0.26 per cent, at Rs 367.20 in a volume of 11 lots ,The metal for delivery in November contracts edged up by 95 paise, or 0.26 per cent, at Rs 367.20 in a volume of 11 lots. Globally, copper for September delivery climbed 0.3 per cent to 40,600 yuan (USD 6539) per tonne but at the London Metal Exchange, the metal for delivery in three month fell 0.7 per cent to USD 5,590 per tonne. Globally, copper for September delivery climbed 0.3 per cent to 40,600 yuan (USD 6539) per tonne but at the London Metal Exchange, the metal for delivery in three month fell 0.7 per cent to USD 5,590 per tonne. Market analysts attributed the rise in copper prices in futures trade to a better trend in Asian trade and pickup in demand at domestic spot market.

✍ Zinc
Zinc futures today edged up 0.63 per cent to Rs 128.40 per kg as participants enlarged positions amid a firming trend overseas and better domestic demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in July rose by 80 paise, or 0.63 per cent, to Rs 128.40 per kg, with a business turnover of 747 lots. Marketmen said improved demand at the spot market amid a firming trend in base metals overseas, mainly influenced zinc prices in futures trade here.The metal for delivery in August also rose by 70 paise, or 0.55 per cent, to Rs 128.90 per kg in a business volume of 29 lots.



✍ Nickel
Taking positive cues from global market and rising demand from domestic alloy-makers, nickel futures climbed 1.13 per cent to Rs 737 per kg today.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in current month contracts rose by Rs 8.20, or 1.13 per cent, to Rs 737 per kg in a business turnover of 2,801 lots. Metal for delivery in August was also trading higher by Rs 8.20, or 1.11 per cent, at Rs 744.30 per kg in 161 lots.Analysts said besides rising spot demand, a firming trend at the London Metal Exchange (LME), also boosted prices.Meanwhile, nickel for delivery in three months at the LME rose 0.7 per cent to USD 11,580 per tonne. The metal rose 4.9 per cent yesterday, posting the biggest two-day rally since 2012.


✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ FMC reduces trading time
Commodity derivatives markets regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC) has reduced the trading time of the evening session in agricultural commodities by two hours and de-listed four contracts from the evening session owing to the lack of liquidity.

With this, the trading time of the evening session in agricultural commodities ends at 9:00 pm compared with 11:00 pm earlier in normal days. The closing time during US daylight saving period has been advanced to 9.30 pm from 11.35 pm earlier.

✍ Mansoon Update
Maharashtra, which ranks second in soyabean and cotton production, is giving artificial rainfall another shot in an attempt to save crops, 13 years after a similar experiment failed. Amid worries that a dry spell may force re-sowing to take place, the state government has shortlisted a private agency for cloud seeding to generate artificial rainfall during August to October. About 80 per cent of the state's cultivable land depends on rainfall. The government wants to ensure that kharif crops get at least one life-saving rainfall in those key months and is hoping that advances in artificial rainfall will help. The state government is already assessing the possibility of re-sowing in large parts of western Maharashtra, Khandesh and parts of Marathwada and Vidarbha. "The situation is worrisome in these parts as there has been no rain for more than 15 days," said a top official of the state's agriculture department. Another high level official from Mantralaya, the state government's administrative headquarters in Mumbai, said that in all probability, artificial rainfall will be required in the near future. "We will do cloud seeding as an experiment. As the process requires large number of no objection certificates from various government agencies, we have started preparations in order to keep ourselves ready for any emergency in August-September," the official said.


Nearly 37 per cent sowing of various kharif crops, including oilseeds and pulses, has been completed in Chhattisgarh in the ongoing crop season. "Farmers have completed sowing of kharif crops on around 13.88 lakh hectares of land against the proposed target of 48.20 lakh hectares in the state," an official statement said today. The Bilaspur division is leading the chart with 37 per cent of the average sowing completed in its five districts, followed by Raipur division (35 per cent), Bastar (20 per cent) and Surguja division (12 per cent), it said. Notably, the Chhattisgarh Agriculture Department has set the target of cultivating cereals, pulses, oil seeds and other crops on an area of 48.20 lakh hectares in the current kharif season. The target has been set to grow paddy on 36.45 lakh hectares, corn on 2.25 lakh hectares, pulses on 3.79 lakh hectares and oilseeds on 3.44 lakh hectares.Moreover, an amount of Rs 1,356.61 crore has been distributed to over 4.51 lakh farmers during the current kharif season by the Chhattisgarh Primary Agriculture Co-Operative Samitis.

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Last Updated July 14, 2015