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MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
✍ Bullion
Gold jumped almost two percent on Thursday as the dollar fell to a 17- month low against the Japanese yen following minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting and global shares fell, rekindling investor appetite for safer assets. Gold prices dropped on Friday on account of profit booking by traders as prices had earlier surged on expectations that any rate hikes by the Fed will be gradual based on comments from Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen. Prices had surged ahead of a public appearance by Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen after the close of trading, as investors digested dovish indications from the Fed's March minutes that the US central bank will remain cautious with the timing of its next interest rate hike. At the MCX, Gold futures for June 2016 contract is trading at Rs 28,990 per 10 gram, down by 0.24 per cent after opening at Rs 29,145, against the previous closing price of Rs 29,060. It touched the intra-day low of Rs 28,955. (At 12.40 PM today). Further, a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of gold as an alternative asset. Stronger greenback makes the bullion expensive for those holding other currencies, thus reducing demand.
Investors remained bearish on gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as they pulled out Rs 903 crore from this instrument last fiscal, making it the third consecutive financial year of outflow. The pace of outflow, however, slowed down in the 2015-16 fiscal ended March 31, as against the preceding two years on account of sluggish equity market. According to the latest data available with Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi), Gold ETFs witnessed a net outflow of Rs 903 crore last fiscal, compared to an outflow of Rs 1,475 crore in the preceding financial year. In 2013-14, the funds witnessed outflow of Rs 2,293 crore. The asset base of gold funds dropped to Rs 6,346 crore in March 2016 from Rs 6,665 crore at the end of March 2015. "Gold prices had a good run until 2012 and investors bought gold chasing the historical returns from gold. As gold corrected, investors were disappointed and thereby exited out of gold. "Equities saw a good run up from September 2013 onward and sentiment towards equities improved thereby driving flows /shift from other asset markets to equities," Quantum AMC Senior Fund Manager (Alternative Investments) Chirag Mehta said.However, the pace of outflows has slowed down, as most of the return chasing disappointed investors seem to have exited from gold ETFs, he added.The demand for gold ETFs has been steadily falling in the past few years. These products have seen outflow as gold prices are correcting and equities have given good returns to investors. Retail investors have been putting in more money into equity and debt mutual funds in the last financial year.Equity and equity-linked saving schemes saw an infusion of over Rs 74,000 crore and debt funds attracted nearly Rs 20,000 crore. Overall, mutual fund schemes have witnessed an inflow of Rs 1.34 lakh crore during the period under review. "With the recovery in prices (positive short term performance) the return chasing types may come back," he added. The mutual fund sector has 14 gold-based schemes, which have been in the market since 2006-07.

✍ Energy
Crude Oil prices jumped six per cent on Friday, heading for the largest weekly gain in a month, as draw downs in US crude stockpiles fed hopes that a punishing global oversupply may be approaching a tipping point after nearly two years. Brent crude futures were up $2.39 at $41.82 a barrel by 1:17 pm EDT (1717 GMT), hitting a session high above $42. The shutdown of the Keystone crude pipeline to Cushing, Oklahoma has supported prices this week. Crude also drew support when Russia said its crude output fell in April, as major oil producing countries prepared to meet in Doha on April 17 to freeze production. US gasoline and diesel prices rallied more than five per cent each. US crude this year has drawn support from cheap gasoline pump prices and benign driving weather. Ultra low sulfur diesel, also known as heating oil, rebounded this week on seasonally cold weather forecasts through late April. Brent crude futures were up $2.39 at $41.82 a barrel by 1:17 p.m. EDT (1717 GMT), hitting a session high above $42. US crude futures rose by $2.28 to $39.53 a barrel. Earlier, it rose to nearly $40.For the week, both benchmarks were on track to gain about 8 per cent, their most since the week ended March 4. “We are starting to draw crude inventories in the US" said Scott Shelton, energy broker with ICAP in Durham, North Carolina. “Run rates are rising and US production is falling."
Crude oil futures jumped by more than 2 per cent during noon trade in the domestic market on Friday as investors and speculators anticipated the weekly US rig count data which will offer cues over near-to-medium term production in the US. A surprise draw in US crude stockpiles last week and a drop in output by 14,000 barrels a day to 9.01 million barrels per day has eased worries of oversupplies. A dip in the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits last week by 9,000 to 267,000, signals that a recovery in the labour market of the world’s biggest economy remains on a solid footing, signaling an improved demand outlook for the fuel, supporting sentiment. At the MCX, crude oil futures for April 2016 contract were trading at Rs. 2,538 per barrel, up by 2.46 per cent, after opening at Rs. 2,489 against the previous closing price of Rs. 2,478. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 2,547 till the trading

✍ Base Metal
Copper fell 3 percent to its lowest in a month on Thursday as concerns over demand from major consumer China helped push the metal through key chart support, triggering further selling. Four traders of copper, including two from state-owned Chinese smelters, said they expect China to raise its copper exports, unleashing some of its near-record high stockpiles of the metal onto the global market. Any lingering hopes of significant copper output cuts to offset slow demand growth from China . The price of Copper in the commodity market rose during noon trade as the metal is expected to be in shortage at the year-end as cooling investments mean no major mines are built this year. Copper is also considered to be a precious metal these days. Unlike the last few surplus years, Copper is predicted to be below the inventory level which was supposed to be in accordance with the previous years. Copper also got a uplift from a decline in the dollar, which boosts the appeal of the metal as an alternative asset. At the MCX, Copper is currently trading at Rs. 307.80 (at 2:28 pm today) after opening at Rs. 307.50. The metal touched an intra-day high of Rs. 308.7 and low of Rs. 306.6. The commodity was closed at Rs. 306.6 on the previous day.
Nickel prices drifted by 0.28% to Rs 571.50 per kg in futures trading today as traders reduced positions, tracking a weak trend at spot market on sluggish demand from consuming industries. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in April declined by Rs 1.60, or 0.28% to Rs 571.50 per kg in a business turnover of 1,224 lots. On similar lines, metal for delivery in May traded lower by Rs 1.40, or 0.24% to Rs 577.50 per kg in 27 lots. Market analysts said the fall in nickel prices in futures trade was mostly on weak trend at spot market on subdued demand from alloy-makers but metal's gain overseas, capped the losses.
Lead futures fell 0.75 per cent to 113.20 per kg today as a result of low demand for the commodity from battery-maker in the spot market in the midst of weak overseas trend. At the MCX, Lead futures, for the April 2016 contract, is trading at 113.20 per kg, down by 0.75 per cent, after opening at Rs 113.85, against a previous close of Rs 114.05. It touched an intra-day low of Rs 113.05 till the trading. (At 3.20 PM today). However, losses were limited due to the decline in the lead stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand for the commodity. LME lead stocks fell by 625 metric tonnes to 156075 metric tonnes as on April 8, 2016.



✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
Oil meals export dropped 52 per cent to 1.18 million tonnes (mt) in 2015-16, against 2.46 mt the previous year, due to a sharp fall in soyabean shipments, the Solvent Extractors' . In value terms, export fell 65 per cent to Rs 1,510 crore, compared to Rs 4,298 crore in 2014-15. Lower production of soyabean, coupled with high price in the domestic market resulted in to drastic fall in crushing, leading to disparity in export of soybean meal.Exports to South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Iran, Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia drastically reduced in 2015-16 due to price disparity, owing to severe competition from other origins, including China and Argentina.India lost the Vietnam market for soyabean meal due to stiff competition and increased availability from domestic crushing of imported soyabean, the SEA statement said.Iran has shifted soyabean meal buying from India to other countries, while Bangladesh has moved to import of soyabean for domestic crushing.Soyabean meal exports has dropped to 70,820 tonnes in 2015-16, from 6,59,593 tonnes last year.Exports to other destinations like Thailand and Taiwan also dropped during the 2015-16


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