MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

Important News
IMF cuts global growth forecast to 3.4 percent for the current year.
US Unemployment Claims declined to 284,000 for w/e 18th July 2014.
Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing PMI grew to 51.9-mark in July.
UK’s Retail Sales grew by 0.1 percent in the previous month.

US Weekly Data
US Unemployment Claims declined by 19,000 to 284,000 for the week ending on 18th July 2014 as against a rise of 303,000 in prior week.

Flash
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell by 1 points to 56.3 .mark in July from 57.3-level in June.
New Home Sales declined to 406,000 in June with respect to 442,000 in May.

Indian Currency
The Indian Rupee traded on a negative note on Thursday trading session and retreated from week high and depreciated around 0.2 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of dollar demand from state run banks for oil and defense related payments. Further, estimates of Reserve Bank of India buying dollars continued with downside movement in the currency.

Precious Metals
Gold Comex witnessed good slide with the commodity losing over a percent to $1290 per ounce wherein fall was coincided with very sharp increase in volumes. in India MCX gold losing near 0.9% to Rs 27625 per 10 Gms while other key contracts like the ACE and NCDEX Gold too closed lower b y around a same rate.
Comex Gold August slipped last week as Goldman Sachs came out with fresh negative note on the gold. . Later, the Fed Chairman during her testimony stated that the growth of US economy is continuing which added positivity in Dollar index. Though geopolitical issue in Ukraine and Gaza Strip tried to support the metal in latter half, overall it finished lower. This clearly gives bears an upper hand over the commodity. The coming week is going to be highly tricky as on one hand we have to watch at the fresh developments over conflict between Russia- Ukraine while on the other side, movement in equities, currencies and on actual physical demand side would be watched. When we look at the economy related cues, overall bias towards the US economy continues to be positive wherein in the coming week, we have the critical CPI number along with some housing data and the Durable Goods Orders. The key for Bullion would be the CPI gauge which as per initial estimates is seen maintaining a moderate increase on a MoM basis. Overall looking at the broader aspects, we looks a negative view in the commodity.

View - Bearish ( Sell on high)
1. Base Metals
Base metals complex ended higher on Thursday lifted by better PMI data out in China and Europe.
Indian Base metal complex moved higher on Thursday, tracking gains in the overseas markets. Rupee depreciated against the Dollar on Thursday and also influenced prices
Dollar index remained firm on Thursday after data from Labour Department that weekly jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 284,000.
Copper prices continued its upward momentum on Friday as investors cheered better than expected manufacturing data out of China.
In other news, China’s scrap copper imports plunged by 13.1% on the month to merely 263,000 MT in June, below the average monthly volume through the first six months, Customs data indicate.

View - Bullish ( Buy on dip)
Energy
Crude oil prices closed on a weaker note as markets once again started talking about weaker demand over gasoline commodity whereas late afternoon global GDP update by the IMF too dented market sentiment. WTI at NYMEX platform lost 1% yesterday to shut near the 102 per barrel level. commodity may trade in positive note that better Chinese, EU and US manufacturing numbers would continue to support prices which were already getting from the huge fall in Crude and Cushing inventories as per latest DOE report.



View - Bearish (Sell on high)
Natural gas recorded a good rally yesterday backed by betterinventory numbers from the US EIA. NYMEX NG August jumped 2.25% to $3.84 per MMBTU. NG active July expiry at MCX too managed a near similar performance gaining by 2% to Rs 231.50 per barrel.


NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
MANSOON WATCH
Monsoon deficit reduces further to 24% as on 24th July from 25%
Moderate recovery seen for Oil complex, Guar and Spices on short covering after the recent significant fall in rates. Some pickup in demand seen at these lower levels
Firmness in International markets keep trend firm in oil complex


SETELITE IMAGE OF INDIAN WHETHER CONDITION AS ON 11/07/2014 9.45 A.M.
CHANA
Chana got some support at the lower levels after the recent massive corrections in prices. There was some pick up in demand at these low rates in the mandis. However rains in Central and North-west India kept market sentiments weak for the commodity. Traders anticipate prices to be at low levels and expect downtrend to be limited from these levels.
Monsoon progress for next few days remains critical. Sowing of Kharif Pulses are likely to get adversely affected if delayed and below normal Monsoon is maintained. Drought like conditions and heat wave delaying sowing of most crops, monsoon rains were 25% below normal till date.
As per latest reports of sowing of kharif crops, kharif sowing area has crossed 345.60 lakh hectare. It is reported that as on 18.7.2014, rice has been sown/transplanted in 127.36 lakh ha, pulses in 21.58 lakh ha, coarse cereals in 48.43 lakh ha, and oilseeds in 38.07 lakh ha. The planting of sugarcane and cotton is also in progress. Sugarcane has been planted in 46.09 lakh ha and cotton in 56.00 lakh ha as on today.
Higher Pulses production for 2013-14 has been keeping sentiments weak so far. As per 3rd Advanced crop estimates by Govt of India, India is likely to produce record Foodgrains in 2013-14 at 264.38 MT. Record production in
On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall in Dollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Canada low resulting in further weakening of market sentiments.
In the first nine months of fiscal 2013-14, pulses arrivals from abroad aggregated 2 mt; for the whole year, imports are projected at 2.6 mt, sharply down from 3.8 mt last year, according to Commerce Ministry data.

SOYABEAN / REFI.SOYA
Indian oil seed complex prices moved lower on weak overseas prices amid ideas of better domestic crop growth conditions due to beneficial rains in key central India Soy growing areas.
• Monsoon rains in India were 25% below average levels since 1st June.
• According to 3rd Advance estimates released by GoI, India’s output for the following crops in 2013-14 year are:- Soybean- 11.95 million MT, RM Seed – 7.83 million MT.
• Soy meal exports from India, fell sharply to 2,637 MT in June from 8.226 MT in May vs. 213,564 MT in June 2013. India's oil meal exports in June 2014 were 193K MT vs. 161K MT in previous month and 360K MT in June 2013.
• India imported 860K MT of veg oils in June vs. 1022K MT in May and 911K MT in June 2013. India imported 598K MT of Palm oil, 99K MT of Soy oil and 155K MT of Sun oil in June 2014.

India Physical Market Rates
23-Jul-14 Soybean - Indore – NCDEX 4216.00 Rs. / 100 Kg
23-Jul-14 Soybean - Kota - NCDEX 4350.35 Rs. / 100 Kg
23-Jul-14 Soybean -Nagpur - NCDEX 4280.25 Rs. / 100 Kg
23-Jul-14 Refined Soy oil - Indore - NCDEX 686.90 Rs. / 10 Kg
23-Jul-14 Refined Soy oil - Mumbai - NCDEX 674.10 Rs. / 10 Kg
23-Jul-14 Refined Soy oil - Nagpur - NCDEX 701.50 Rs. / 10 Kg
23-Jul-14 Soybean meal Export - Kandla – NCDEX 39750.00 Rs. / MT
23-Jul-14 Soybean meal - Indore - NCDEX 38600.00 Rs. / MT
23-Jul-14 Soy meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA 650.00 USD / MT
23-Jul-14 Mustard meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA 240.00 USD / MT
23-Jul-14 Mustard oil - Sri Ganganagar - NCDEX 685.50 Rs. / 10 Kg


CBOT Soya complex
Prices moved higher yesterday after days of lower price movement. Soybean prices rose from near 4 year low yesterday on reports of lower rains in some US Soy areas.
• As of 20 July, US Soybeans was rated 73% good to excellent vs.72% a week ago and 64% a year ago.
• According to CFTC CoT report, for the week ending 15 July, non commercial traders increased their net short positions in CBOT Soybeans.
• ICE Canola prices closed higher yesterday.

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