The COVID-19 outbreak is likely to bring several short-term and long-term consequences in various industries, such as agriculture, textiles, mining, and other end-user industries, which may affect the ammonia market. The agriculture industry was widely impacted due to supply chain disruption and halt in the production of fertilizer manufacturing companies due to lockdown and workforce shortages, thus, adversely affecting the ammonia market. For instance, across the world, the lockdowns in Europe have greatly disrupted food supply chains. According to Syngenta, about 46% of large European farming businesses have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

- The major factor that is driving the market studied is the growing demand in the agriculture industry and its increasing usage for the production of explosives. About 80% of ammonia produced is used in fertilizer to help sustain food production for millions of people in the country. The production of food crops naturally depletes soil nutrient supplies. In order to maintain healthy crops, farmers rely on fertilizers to keep their soils productive. Fertilizers can also help increase levels of essential nutrients, like zinc, selenium, and boron in food crops.

- The hazardous effects of ammonia in its concentrated form is likely to hinder the growth of the market studied.

- The use of ammonia as a refrigerant is likely to act as an opportunity to the market studied during the forecast period.

- Asia-Pacific dominated the market across the world, with the largest consumption from countries, such as China and India, and is further expected to remain the same in the future.

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Key Market Trends

Agriculture Industry to Dominates the Market

- Ammonia, also known as NH3, is one of the most efficient and widely used sources of nitrogen for plant growth. The advantages of ammonia's relatively easy application and ready availability have led to its increased use as a fertilizer. Ammonia is a basic building block for ammonium nitrate fertilizer, which releases nitrogen, an essential nutrient for growing plants, including farm crops and lawns. Moreover, it can be converted into a variety of common N fertilizers.

- The agriculture industry dominates the global ammonia market, with an estimated market share of around 80%. Ammonia is majorly used in fertilizers, and its usage has only been increasing through the years, thereby, driving its usage in the agriculture market throughout the forecast period.

- Fertilizers are plant nutrients that are required for the growth of crops. The fertilizers market is also expected to expand, with agriculture production growing through the years (primarily owing to the growing population, increasing urbanization, and rising disposable income of individuals). Consumption of meat, dairy products, fish, sugar, fruits, and vegetables has been experiencing rapid growth, compared to the consumption of cereals.

- Urea is a dry nitrogen material produced by reacting ammonia with carbon dioxide. It contains the highest percentage of nitrogen among the commonly used dry fertilizers and is rapidly replacing ammonium nitrate in the recent years.

- After a slow growth of 1.3% in 2018, the demand for agriculture is seen as dropping by 1% in 2019. This is due to combination of low international prices for most crops; unfavorable weather in important agricultural and fertilizer consuming areas; currency depreciation in some fertilizer-importing countries trade tensions between China and the US and between Russia and Ukraine; sanctions against Iran; and increasing emphasis on the more efficient use of fertilizers in developed countries and China.

- Although medium-term outlook for world agriculture remains broadly unchanged, however agricultural production growth rates are steadily declining. Additionally, expectations to improve fertilizer use efficiency and recycle more organic nutrient sources will put pressure on fertilizer demand in developed countries and an increasing number of emerging economies.

- Although the global fertilizer demand seem to have slow growth, the demand for ammonia-based products are faring better. The largest growths are projected in South Asia, Latin America and Southeast Asia. Significant increases in urea demand are expected to contribute to this growth especially in Latin America and East Asia, including China for its industrial sectors. Overall, these factors are expected to influence the demand for the global ammonia market.

Asia-Pacific to Dominate the Ammonia Market

- Asia-Pacific dominated the ammonia market, accounting for more than half of the consumption globally.
- In the Asia-Pacific region, China is the largest economy in terms of GDP. The country witnessed about 6.1% growth in its GDP during 2019, even after the trade disturbance caused due to its trade war with the United States. The economic growth rate of China in 2020 was initially expected to be moderate as compared to the previous year.

- However, due to the onset of COVID-19 in 2020, the economic growth of China is estimated to contract to some extent and is expected to witness recovery in 2021.

- China accounts for approximately 7% of the overall agricultural acreage, globally, thus, feeding 22% of the world population. The country is the largest producer of various crops, including rice, cotton, potatoes, and among other vegetables. Hence, the demand for ammonia which is used as a fertilizer is rapidly increasing owing to the large-scale agricultural activities in the country.

- The agricultural sector in the country is expected to grow for various reasons, as China’s urban consumers have the intent to eat more freshly produced and processed fruits, vegetables, juices, etc., and the demand for freshly produced food items may continue to grow, due to population shifts from rural areas to the cities.

- China has the largest agricultural output among all other countries in the world. In China, about 10% of its land is suitable for cultivation. The limited space for cultivation has led to serious food shortages in the past. China is planning to modernize and upgrade agriculture in the next 10 years. China's agriculture development will shift from increasing production to improving quality.

- India is a growing economy and holds great potential for future market opportunities. The country has the tenth-largest arable land resources in the world. The gross irrigated area under food grains was 64.8 million hectares in 2019, from 61.63 million hectare in 2013. The growing investments in irrigation have enhanced the gross irrigated area, thus, creating a demand for pesticides and fertilizers, stimulating the demand for the market studied.

- The Indian textile and apparel sector is expected to achieve decent growth in 2021. According to the Indian Texpreneurs Federation (ITF), the textile industry had benefited from the volumes in the market in the first 10 months of 2020.

- Furthermore, the government launched a production-linked incentive scheme to provide incentives for the manufacture and export of specific textile products made using man-made fiber.

- Overall, the market for ammonia in Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to grow significantly through the forecast period.

Competitive Landscape

The global ammonia market is fragmented, with the inclusion of international and local players in different regions. The major manufacturers in the market include CF Industries Holdings Inc., Yara, Nutrien Ltd, OCI Nitrogen, Ostchem (Group DF), followed by other prominent players.

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