Though the bid seen in safe-haven assets like German bunds, US treasuries and the Japanese Yen can be attributed to uncertainty over the outcome of the British referendum on its membership of the European Union, the premium seen in gold in recent weeks owes more to the fading chance of higher US interest rates.

That’s the consensus at Tokyo-based wealth manager, Shinsei Corporate Management which says that little of the yellow metal’s spot price is owed to a potential “leave” vote.

Gold has surged strongly since the release of nonfarm payrolls data which showed the US economy only created 38,000 new jobs in May. In addition, prices have been given an additional boost by dovish comments from the Fed after it announced a hold on interest rates and a reduction in the number of rate hikes it expected to make in 2016.

“It would be reckless to suggest that the outcome of the UK’s referendum has no bearing whatsoever on the gold price but it’s not as much as some seem to be suggesting,” said Floyd Paché, chief economist at Shinsei Corporate Management.

“A vote for Britain to remain in the EU would effectively mean a continuation of the status quo while a vote to leave could potentially result in a boost for prices so we don’t see much in the way of a downside risk from the vote.”

Global markets have rallied strongly this week after new polls showed a slight advantage for the Remain camp but some commentators are suggesting that the polls have it wrong and that, ultimately, voter anger over immigration and EU bureaucracy will result in a win for the Leave campaign.

Shinsei Corporate Management has an end-of-year target range of $1400 - $1500 on gold.

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