New Delhi, India April 16 2015: Skymet, India’s leading weather forecasting and agriculture risk solutions company has released its Monsoon foreshadow for 2015. Skymet expects the coming Monsoon to be ‘normal’. It has forecast the Monsoon at 102% (error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.

In terms of geographical risk, Skymet suggests that peninsular India will be at moderate risk through June, July, August and September (JJAS). There seems to be weakness in Tamil Nadu Rayalseema, South interior Karnataka, East Madhya Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh. Good amounts of rainfall is expected in Punjab, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh and over the West coast.

According to Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet, “The El Nino is likely to continue into the summer months and taper down there after. It is not likely to have an adverse impact on Monsoon performance”. The Monsoon onset is expected to be early (around the 27th of May) and fairly strong. Pre-Monsoon rain will also be strong across the country. Unseasonal rainfall will continue well into the month of May.

There is no clear signal about the emergence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this year during Monsoon.

According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for JJAS are:
•8% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
•25% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% OF LPA)
•49% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
•16% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
•2% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)

On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follows:

June – 107% of LPA (LPA = 164 mm)
•64% chance of normal
•29% chance of above normal
•7% chance of below normal

July – 104% of LPA (LPA = 289 mm)
•74% chance of normal
•17% chance of above normal
•9% chance of below normal

August – 99% of LPA (LPA = 261 mm)
•72% chance of normal
•10% chance of above normal
•18% chance of below normal

September – 96% of LPA (LPA = 173 mm)
•59% chance of normal
•16% chance of above normal
•25% chance of below normal

Skymet Weather is India's largest weather monitoring and agri-risk solutions company. We are experts in measuring, predicting and limiting climate risk to agriculture.
For the past 11 years, Skymet Weather has been catering to weather analytics and data needs of media, insurance and agriculture. Tata Power, Reliance Infra, The World Bank, HDFC ERGO, Agriculture Insurance Corporation of India Limited (AICIL), ICICI LOMBARD, The Hindustan Times, The Hindu and The Telegraph have been some of its clients. Skymet is backed by ag-tech venture capitalist Omnivore Partners and dmg:information.