Technical Outlook

TRADING STRATEGY :
BUY DHANIYA NOV ABOVE 11970 TGTS 12000,12050 SL 11920 BUY GUARGUM NOV ABOVE 15850 TGTS 15900,16000 SL 15760

SELL CASTORSEED NOV BELOW 4620 TGTS 4590,4540 SL 4670
BUY TMC NOV ABOVE 6060 TGTS 6110,6210 SL 5970



Commodities In News
 Castor seed arrivals in spot markets has increased. While stocks and
production is expected to grow this year. Export demand may remain weak
with castors. These factors led to vigorous Castor seed prices are likely to fall.
According to experts at Rs 4,200 per quintal in futures market prices could
split castors. Castor seed NCDEX November futures declined by 1.55 per
cent to Rs 4,650 per quintal has slipped down. A similar decline in the
December futures is being recorded.Castseed of stock in warehouses nearly 53
% is a huge increase. Patan, Kadi and Disa stock has increased most in the
warehouses. Roofing on October 17, Kadi and Disa in warehouses
respectively : 17 876 tonnes, 11 369 tonnes and 8863 tonnes of the stock has
increased Castrseed. Castrseed steep rise in stock prices in the domestic
market is expected to decline strenuous.
Chana settled up by 0.24% at 2925 due to increased demand ahead and a
rise in local consumption in the peak festival season. Further, expectations of
decline in output from the major producing belts too supported chana prices.
National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED)
has stocks around 250,000 tons which could weigh on market sentiments.
Further imports of 19 containers containing yellow peas is expected which
could keep the supply bountiful in the market. The government has allowed
zero duty import of chana for three more months till Dec 31. NAFED has
declared that out of 123,415 tons chana stored in more than 45 warehouses of
Rajasthan, the agency plans to sell around 1,000 ton per day. Agriculture
ministry has estimated chana record output at 9.88 million ton up from 8.83
million ton a year ago. Lower prices on the back of record output and
comfortable supplies may force farmers to switch over to other remunerative
crops such as mustard and coriander which could yield better returns.




ECONOMIC NEWS

India's sugar stocks have declined by 25 per cent to 6.92 million
tonnes at the beginning of the new marketing year that started this
month due to lower output and higher exports last year. Sugar stocks
stood at 9.3 million tonnes (MT) as on October 1 2013. The
marketing year runs from October- September. Although the stocks
of sweetener have reduced, they are still nearly 2 MT higher than
what is required for meeting the domestic demand till production
from new crushing season comes into the market. According to
government estimates sugar stocks stood at 6.92 MT as on October 1,
2014, sources said.This is lower than the Indian Sugar Mills
Association (ISMA) projection of 7.4 MT of opening stock at the
start of this month. The stocks have come down significantly as sugar
output of India, the world's second largest producer, fell to 24.3 MT
in 2013-14 marketing year from 25.1 MT in the previous year.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley is fairly confident the government
will meet this year's fiscal deficit target. At 4.1 per cent of gross
domestic product the deficit looked looked like a bit of stretch in July
but the food subsidy, for one, is not going to balloon as in previous
years.The nationwide rollout of the ambitious National Food Security
Act has been put off by six months, and its Rs 15,000 crore extra
burden will be borne in the next financial year. In 2014-15, the
entitlement of subsidised grain to two-thirds of the country's
population is available in only 11-odd states and that too not in its
entirety.The National Democratic Alliance has also brought fresh
thinking into grain procurement that might halve the food subsidy
spillover into the next year.

National & International Market Updates
Steady sentiments recorded in key sugar spot markets today. Lackluster
trade and sluggish demand led the prices steady to weak for the day.
Tenders are invited by KARNAL COOPERATIVE SUGAR MILLS
LIMITED for transportation and loading of sugarcane for season 2014-15.
Opening date for the tender has been fixed at 27th October, 2014.
Gur prices fell down and are expected to scroll down further amidst good
stock availability in the Maharashtra markets. It is notable that cane has
diverted more towards gur production in Pune and Sangli area this year. In
addition to it, market participants is expecting early arrivals of gur for the
next marketing year which drive the prices southwards in the medium term.
A fire broke out in a warehouse at Santos port of Brazil, storing almost
50 thousand tons of sugar at time. Reportedly, the terminal called TEAG
(of which the warehouse was a apart) is co-jointly owned by Cargill and
Biosev, the sugar unit of Louis Dreyfus Commodities. Though the
immediate effect of tragedy is not yet felt on prices but is expected to
reduce the global glut position in near terms.China’s sugar import declined
39% y-o-y from 0.59 million tons to 0.36 million tons in the month of
September. Similarly, a depreciating domestic currency and ample stock
build up within the nation caused total imports to fall by 17.8% to 2.4
million tons in 2014(Jan-Sep).Total around 14538 bags of gur stored in
cold storages till 27th Oct, 2014 lower compared to 21599 bags at same
period last year.


SUGAR PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKET
CENTER
27-Oct-14
25-Oct-14
%Change
DELHI
3130
CLOSED
-
DHARAMPUR
3080
3090
-10
MUMBAI
3036
NA
-
KOLHAPUR
2800
CLOSED
-
VIJAYWADA
3480
3480
UNCH


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