Technical Outlook

TRADING STRATEGY :
BUY DHANIYA NOV ABOVE 12120 TGTS 12150,12200 SL 12070
BUY CASTORSEED NOV ABOVE 4625 TGTS 4655,4705 SL 4575

SELL GUARGUM NOV BELOW 15590 TGTS 15540,15460 SL 15665
SELL TMC BELOW NOV 6030 TGTS 5980,5900 SL 6100


Commodities In News
 Refined Soya oil prices were higher by 0.82% to Rs 577.60 per 10 kg
in futures trading today after speculators created positions amid pick
up in domestic demand and tight supplies from producing belts.At
the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil
for delivery in November went up by Rs 4.70, or 0.82%, to Rs
577.60 per 10 kg with an open interest of 1,02,545 lots.On similar
lines, the oil for delivery in December edged higher by Rs 2.80, or
0.49%, to Rs 575.25 per 10 kg in 78,210 lots.Analysts said apart
from firming trend at spot market on pick up in demand in view of
f estive season, restricted arrivals from producing regions helped
refined soya oil prices to trade higher at futures trade.

Stockiest buying continued in coriander futures due to declining
stocks in local mandies coupled with strong demand by stockiest and
exporters. The NCDEX futures swelled by 1.31 percent today.As per
the market sources, the stock position of coriander in the local
mandies have been reported at 38 lakh bags against 62 lakh bags of
the last year on the account of weak production in the current season.
The total production in the current year is estimated lower at 100 lakh
bags against 120 lakh bags of the last year.The prices were also be
guided by limited supplies in local mandies as the daily supplies of
coriander.
 Cardamom prices rose for the second straight day by adding 2.02% to
Rs 859.70 per kg in futures trading today as speculators engaged in
enlarging positions amid a firm trend at spot market on rising demand
in the spot market.Further, limited arrivals from producing regions and
exports enquiries fuelled the uptrend.At the Multi Commodity
Exchange, cardamom for delivery in November shot up by Rs 17, or
2.02%, to Rs 859.70 per kg in a business turnover of 335 lots.





ECONOMIC NEWS

Guarseed and guar gum prices rose to a record high during
previous years. The rise was attributed to high demand from the
US, which further lead to speculation in the domestic
market.Production of guar depends heavily upon monsoon as the
crop is grown mainly in rain-fed areas of Rajasthan.Not only
sufficient, but also timely rainfall is required for better
production. Such dependence on monsoon makes it difficult to
forecast its production. During recent years, the industry has built
a huge inventory of guarseed. Dependency upon inventory of
seeds may inflate the price of end product but at the same time
ensure continuous supply. The industry has to ensure a price
which is profitable to them as well as affordable to end users.
Prices of guarseed and guar gum are highly correlated with
withdrawal of shale gas by the US. Such major dependence on a
single industry has put forward challenges and threats which need
proper addressing. Guar gum is mostly sold according to
specification stipulated by the end user. It is very essential for the
industry to match the quality standard especially for food grade of
guar gum. According to an industry source, a little contamination
in guar gum powder may lead to heavy consequences such as
withdrawal of product . Price stabilisation is one of the major
challenges for the industry. Price fluctuation has created
uncertainty among guar gum users. Such uncertainty may compel
users to look for alternatives. Though such phenomenon may not
be considered good for the industry, it has resulted in attracting
the attention of researcher and analysts. Over the years, the guar
market has grown manifold.There has been a major shift in usage
pattern of guar gum by various industries.


National & International Market Updates
Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has not started the procurement of
cotton at Adilabad market yard on Monday, as scheduled few days back.
CCI official refused to procure cotton at MSP of Rs. 4050 per quintal,
due to presence of moisture content beyond the permissible limit of
12%. Farmers had protested for the same as they wish their produce to
be sold at MSP without the consideration of moisture, whereas CCI said
it would lower Rs.40 from the MSP for every one per cent extra moisture
in the produce. According to the latest report of USDA, countries could
face fall in the export of cotton and its products including yarn and
textiles due to lack of price competitiveness if they support the policies
that support prices above the world market. According to latest weekly
update by International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), cotton
production in India would stand around 6.56 million tonnnes in the
current season (Oct’14-Sep’15) compared to 6.634 million tonnnes in
the previous season.
China imported around 122,900 tonnes of cotton in September this year,
39% lower when compared to same month last year, reported China
Cotton Association (CCA). During the initial nine month of the year,
China imported 2 million tonnes of cotton, 38% lower when compared
to same period last year. According to the latest report released by
USDA, as on October 19, 2014, 47% of cotton crop in USA is in
excellent to good condition, which was 47% last week and 44% a year
ago. 86% bolls open has reported in cotton which was 77% last week
and 90% as five year average. 29% of cotton harvesting reported which
was 22% a week ago and 31% as a 5 year average.


SUGAR PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKET
CENTER
21-Oct-14
20-Oct-14
%Change
MEHSANA
6000
15000
-9000
BHIWANI

2500
4000
-1500
RAJKOT

1125
4415
-3290
FATEHABAD

1000
2000
-1000
BHATINDA

20400
25500
- 5100


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