For the Quarter Ending June 2023

North America:

Throughout Q2 2023, rapeseed oil prices in North America mirrored the trends seen in the European market. The downward trajectory of rapeseed oil prices persisted from Q1 2023 until June 2023, signaling an ongoing subdued market sentiment for this oil variant. The market continued to grapple with challenges such as high rapeseed oil stocks in North America, ample supply from European buyers, and Russia's suspension of black sea grain trade. This suspension had a cascading effect on exports from Ukraine, one of the major producers, resulting in reduced supply. Compounded by the sharp decline in crude oil prices and significantly decreased offers for Russian edible oil and grain, the market witnessed a substantial downturn, impacting prices of corn, rapeseed, and other grains. Elevated interest rates and energy prices added to the strain on import activity, especially as production saw notable declines in exporting nations. Furthermore, robust rapeseed crushing activity pushed rapeseed oil prices below those of other vegetable oils. On the production side, the absence of winter rain in Saskatchewan, Canada's primary producing region, foreshadowed a potentially smaller crop size in the upcoming season. Meanwhile, the El Niño weather phenomenon posed a potential risk to Australian crops, although its impact remained uncertain at this early stage.

Asia Pacific:

In the Asia-Pacific region, rapeseed oil prices exhibited a downward trajectory in the Indian market. The trend of declining rapeseed oil prices persisted from the beginning of 2023, with a notable drop of over 10 percent in April compared to the previous month. Historically, price-sensitive palm oil had been the preferred choice for Asian buyers due to its affordability and quick availability. However, palm oil prices escalated to a premium level over other edible oils, driven partly by a remarkable rapeseed crop that shifted customer preferences towards this oil due to its cost-effectiveness. Additional factors contributing to the price decline included increased rapeseed production in India and subdued demand throughout the quarter, resulting in heightened supply and larger stockpiles that continued to exert downward pressure on prices. By the end of June, rapeseed oil prices in India had settled at USD 1132.74/MT Ex-Jaipur, following a consistent downward trend.

Rapeseed Oil Prices: https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/rapeseed-oil-1320

Europe:

The European rapeseed oil market concluded the second quarter of 2023 on a pessimistic note, characterized by a steady reduction in prices across the region. Prices for rapeseed oil in Rotterdam, a key market hub, experienced a persistent decline, influenced by subdued demand for biodiesel. Remarkably, rapeseed oil prices in Europe closely mirrored the trends observed in the USA throughout the second quarter. One of the principal reasons for the price decline was the presence of ample reserves in the market coupled with diminishing buying sentiment. Surprisingly, farmers exhibited hesitancy in selling their produce. This unexpected behavior stemmed from the anticipation that approaching harvest seasons would prompt them to sell new crop rapeseed. However, farmers now have the flexibility to store wheat or rapeseed for an extended period before the harvest, leading to this hesitation in sales. Consequently, this reluctance to sell created opportunities for Ukrainian farmers or sellers to supply substantial quantities of rapeseed to the European Union.

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