The Year of COVID-19 in the US and Brazil: Predictions and Perspectives


Posted June 5, 2020 by brazilflbusiness

Analysts offered their insight on the long-term economic impacts of COVID-19 on the United States and Brazil.

 
On Wednesday, June 3, the Brazil-Florida Business Council, Inc. hosted its timely webinar “The Year of COVID-19 in the US and Brazil: Predictions and Perspectives,” moderated by Julia Leite, São Paulo’s Bureau Chief with Bloomberg News.

As the United States and Brazil copes with a health crisis of uncharted proportions with the COVID-19 pandemic, leaders in the business world are facing an uncertain future. At the virtual event, economic and political analysts offered their insight on the long-term impacts that may be felt by both nations, offering predictions and perspectives both pragmatic and hopeful.

"Brazil is facing the pandemic from the position of physical fragility and also the business cycle has been somewhat disappointing in terms of the recovery,” explained Alberto Ramos, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs. “We already saw a significant contraction of activities during the 2014-15 crisis, a slow recovery."

While addressing predictions for 2021, Chris Garman, Managing Director for the Americas, Eurasia Group, said, “given a headline GDP contraction of negative seven or eight in September or October, the political debate will likely need to roam around extending the period of exemption for spending outside the cap in 2020 and 2021.”

Lisa Schineller, Managing Director, S&P Global Ratings, addressed how the economic outlook for Brazil and the U.S. could look as the two nations recover: “When it comes to the post-recovery stage, the key issue is whether we can pick up a significant momentum. The current year-to-date contraction of nearly 5% and the signs that there could be more to this crisis led us to lower our growth outlook sequentially. We are assuming some improvements from a very weak phase, but we do not expect a dramatic recovery.”

Otaviano Canuto, Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, Former VP and Executive Director of the IMF and the World Bank, said this year, “Brazil’s public and primary debt levels are reaching all time highs, but all signals point to the Treasury not having major difficulties to live through 2020.”

He continued, “Since the monetary conditions are favorable, there is scope for obtaining finance of these increased financial needs from the government.”

Meanwhile, Alberto Bernal, Chief Emerging Market & Global Strategist, XP Securities, LLC, offered this insight: "It is incredible that we are seeing these amazing performance of assets, but, at the same time, the situation on the real economy continues to look so tired. However, that is not a "Brazil" situation, it is an everywhere thing."

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The Brazil-Florida Business Council, Inc. (BFBC) serves as the recognized statewide business association promoting bilateral business and investment opportunities between Florida and Brazil. A non-governmental and a private international business group, the BFBC is supported by corporate members. It was founded and is being led by Sueli Bonaparte who has devoted more than 30 years of her executive career to forging closer ties between the business communities of Brazil and the U.S.
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Issued By Brazil-Florida Business Council, Inc.
Business Address 2202 N. West Shore Blvd, Suite 200, Tampa, FL 33607
Country United States
Categories Event , Finance , Government
Tags brazil , coronavirus , economics , international relations , webinar
Last Updated June 5, 2020