Virgil - The most important factor to be successful in sports betting would have to be bankroll management, namely having a well-structured and thought out staking plan. As long as you are maintaining a decent level of accuracy in the predictions that you make, proper staking will allow you to maintain a certain level of stability when it comes to growing your bankroll. One of the more popular staking plans is the Kelly Criterion which we personally use.
Ian - Place your bets based on what you know, not what statistics tell you. Statistics are useful for supporting a bet but they’re often misleading when it comes to creating one. You cannot hope to win money by betting on football if you do not watch the games – unless you employ somebody that does it for you!
Luke - For me, one of the best ways that I find value is by using what the market knows and turn it against them in certain situations.
Many people don’t do research when they’re putting on sports bets, and that’s fine (I guess) if you’re just looking for a quick gamble. For those that are looking to make a long-term profit, though, most will put in a decent amount of time to check if they think their bet will be a winner — I’ve found that the research these types of bettors put in is often pointless at best and harmful at worst.
Things like winning form, the number of goals scored recently, the number of goals conceded recently…they are mostly worthless. The reason for this is because it’s all widely-known, public information — especially if you’re betting on the bigger leagues in the world — and the information is therefore factored into the odds you receive. A bettor might think that ‘over 2.5 goals’ is a good bet because both teams playing have scored a lot of goals recently, but it’s not just about winning the bet. It’s about winning the bet at the right price.
If you do not get good enough odds then long-term the bet will not be profitable. You need it to be a +EV (Expected Value) play to return a long-term profit. If you take bad odds and it wins short-term, you got lucky and that’s good for you. But if you continue taking bad odds and, more importantly, not realise what a fair price is for a certain outcome and try to get a better price than that, you will join the 99.9% of sports bettors that lose money over the course of months or years.
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