Epic Research Daily Agri Commodity Report Of 7 August 2018

Posted August 7, 2018 by EPICRESEARCH

Malaysia's Palm Oil stocks are expected to have risen to their highest in five months at end-July, a second straight gain as output growth outpaced exports.


August 7, 2018 — China’s annual Soybean import of around 100 million tonnes is mostly for domestic consumption. Although this product does not have an exportable surplus in India yet, Indian industry players anticipate exports of USD 100 million worth of Soybean meal to China. A delegation of the Soybean Processors Association (Sopa) of India is expected to visit China in August. They want to assuage Chinese quarantine concerns and ensure market availability for Indian Soybean exporters. Currently, there are no Soybean oil and Soybean flour exports and negligible oilcake exports from India to China. India is expecting a bumper crop of Soybean this year. Stiff competition from Brazil and Vietnam will likely also lessen Indian Soybean’s competitiveness in the Chinese market.

Malaysia's Palm Oil stocks are expected to have risen to their highest in five months at end-July, a second straight gain as output growth outpaced exports. Palm oil stocks in the world's No.2 producer grew 7% in July to 2.34 million tonnes from the previous month, highest since February, according to a median estimate from eight planters, traders and analysts surveyed by Reuters. Production rose 15.9 percent from June to 1.54 million tonnes, according to the survey, the first month-on-month gain since March but the lowest for July since 2010.

Good distribution of rains coupled with the incentive of higher and assured minimum support prices have boosted the prospect of the 2018 kharif output being at par with the last summer crop’s. As on Friday, kharif sowing area was down just 1.8% from the year-ago period, from a wider gap of 7.5% prevailing a week earlier. Among major crops, sowing areas for Paddy, Pulses and Cotton are now just 4% below the levels a year ago compared with 12%, 9% and 8%, respectively, a week ago, but the area under oilseeds is now 6% higher than a year ago, a marked improvement from down 1% last week.

Economic News

Indian farmers have planted summer-sown crops on 85.456 million hectares as of Aug. 3, down 1.8 percent from a year earlier, government data showed. Cotton sowing was down 4 percent, while rice planting lagged 4.2 percent. Monsoon rainfall was 10 percent lower than normal as of Aug. 5, but in some states such as Manipur the rainfall deficit was as high as 64 percent, data compiled by the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) showed. India's monsoon rains, a crucial element for the country's farm output, are likely to be below average in 2018, after the country experienced tepid rainfall during the first half of the season.

Rating agency ICRA feels that steep interim hike in wage rates for tea estate workers is expected to result in higher cost pressure for the tea trade. In a report issued on Monday, it said that as per an order by the Governor of Assam dated July 03, 2018, it has been decided that the state government will notify an interim enhancement of wages of tea plantation workers by a minimum amount of Rs. 30 per day with retrospective effect from 1st March 2018, till finalization of the revised minimum wages proposed earlier by the state government. While formal notification of the interim hike is pending, ICRA understands that large tea players have commenced pay-out of wages at the increased rate from 1st August 2018. However, clarity on payment of arrear wages for the period March-July 2018 is yet to emerge. With wage rates increasing in Assam, West Bengal, the other major producer of bulk tea, is also likely to implement an increase shortly, given the historical alignment of wage revisions in the two states. This steep increase is expected to have a significant adverse impact on the operating cost of bulk tea players, given that Assam and West Bengal are the two largest tea producing states in India, accounting for almost 80% of India’s bulk tea production.

Trading Recommendations

SELL CORIANDER AUG BELOW 4900 TARGET 4880/4860/4840 SL 4930
BUY TURMERIC AUG ABOVE 7270 TARGET 7300/7330/7360 SL 7230
SELL GUARGUM5 OCT BELOW 9280 TARGET 9240/9200/9160 SL 9330

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Issued By Epic Research
Country India
Categories Agriculture
Tags Agri Tips , commodity tips , Epic Research
Last Updated August 7, 2018

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