Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 8 February 2016


Posted February 8, 2016 by ways2capital

Gold was trading near its highest since October on Friday, on track for its strongest weekly gain in a month as the dollar was pressured by growing doubts the Federal Reserve can stick to its interest rate hike campaign.

 
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Bullion
Gold was trading near its highest since October on Friday, on track for its strongest weekly gain in a month as the dollar was pressured by growing doubts the Federal Reserve can stick to its interest rate hike campaign. A shaky global economy has lifted buying interest in gold, making it among the best performing assets with a year-to-date gain of nearly 9%. Other precious metals rode on gold's rally, with silver and platinum also at multi-month highs. Silver is eyeing its best week since May last year. Focus is turning to the US employment report due later in the day, with analysts saying a weaker-than-expected reading could stretch gold's rally. Spot gold was flat at $1,154 an ounce by 0211 GMT, after peaking at $1,157.20 on Thursday, its highest since October 29. Gold has gained more than 3% so far this week, on course for its biggest such increase since early January. Bullion's upward momentum increased this week after a key Fed official said there was a need to consider tighter financial conditions and the weakening global outlook in framing US monetary policy That spurred gold bulls, thinking it would be tough for the Fed to raise interest rates again this year after hiking them in December for the first time in nearly a decade. Non-interest bearing gold is quite sensitive to US monetary policy. Its recent upturn has prompted some analysts to have a more positive price outlook on the metal many had thought was bound to fall below $1,000 an ounce as the US lifts rates. HSBC analyst James Steel said gold's rally appeared intact."We see no compelling reason for more than a normal retrenchment before bullion resumes an upward move. The rally is underpinned by risk-off sentiment, a weaker dollar and a shift in global monetary policy," Steel said. US gold for April delivery eased 0.2% to $1,155 an ounce. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, continued to rise, reaching 22.3 million ounces on Thursday, the most since late October. Ahead of the US employment report, economists polled by Reuters are looking for non-farm payrolls to increase by 190,000 in January, after rising by 292,000 in December. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at a 7-1/2-year low of 5%. Spot silver was steady at $14.85 an ounce, near Thursday's three-month high of $14.91 and has gained 4% this week. Platinum dropped 0.7% to $901.74 an ounce, not far below a three-month peak, while palladium held close to a one-month top at $514.38

Silver was down 0.1 percent at $14.86 an ounce, after touching a three month high at $14.96. U.S. employment gains slowed more than expected in January as the boost to hiring from unseasonably mild weather faded, but rising wages and an unemployment rate at an eight-year low suggested the labor market recovery remains firm. Non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000 jobs and the unemployment rate slipped one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.9 percent, the lowest since February 2008, the Labor Department said on Friday. The payrolls gain was a sharp step-down from the average 231,000 jobs per month during the fourth quarter.

Copper
Copper prices declined by 0.69% to Rs 317 per kg in futures trade as participants indulged in trimming positions, tracking a weak trend in base metals overseas. Besides, subdued spot demand from consuming industries fueled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in current month fell by Rs 1.80 or 0.69% to Rs 317 per kg in a business turnover of 1,252 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in far-month April contracts traded lower by Rs 1.55 or 0.60% to Rs 321.20 per kg in 34 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in copper futures to weak trend in global markets after industrial metals retreated amid anxiety over the health of the global economy.

Metals turned lower after the dollar surged post the mixed set of employment data from US and ahead of the long week holiday in the China. U.S. employment gains slowed more than expected in January as the boost to hiring from unseasonably mild weather faded, but rising wages and an unemployment rate at an eight-year low suggested the labour market recovery remains firm. Hedge funds and money managers cut a bearish position in copper to the lowest since early November, in the week to Feb. 2, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. Weighing on prices ahead of the holiday was a surge in weekly inventories of copper, zinc and lead in Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) warehouses. Copper stocks jumped 29,317 tonnes, or 13.8 percent, zinc stocks rose 6.6 percent, while lead stocks more than doubled, reversing the fall from the prior week. France committed on Saturday to support the nickel sector in the Pacific territory of New Caledonia which has been severely hit by a slump in prices amid a mounting supply glut.

Nickel
Nickel prices went up by 0.73% to Rs 592 per kg in futures market after speculators strengthened their positions, driven by a firming trend overseas and pick-up in demand at the domestic spot markets. In futures trading at Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in March spurted Rs 4.30, or 0.73%, to Rs 592 per kg, in a business turnover of 93 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in February was trading higher by Rs 4.10, or 0.70%, to Rs 585.90 per kg in 1,720 lots. Analysts said besides rising demand from alloy-makers at domestic spot markets, a firming trend in base metals pack in global market, influenced nickel prices at futures trade.

Lead
Amid bearish global trend and muted domestic demand, lead prices were down by 1.14% to Rs 120.95 per kg in futures trading as participants cut down their bets. Lead for delivery this month declined by Rs 1.40 or 1.14% to Rs 120.95/kg in a business turnover of 449 lots.Similarly, the metal for delivery in March contracts eased by Rs 1.25 or 1.02% to Rs 121.50 per kg in 9 lots. Market men said the fall in lead futures was due to a weak trend overseas as industrial metals retreated amid anxiety over the health of the global economy. Besides, sluggish demand at the domestic spot markets from battery-makers too weighed on metal futures here, they said. Globally, lead lost 1% to $1,785.50 per tonne at Shanghai after closing at $1,803 yesterday, the highest since October 16.

Zinc
Zinc prices moved down by over 1% to Rs 115.05 per kg in futures market as speculators offloaded their positions in tandem with a weak global trend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in February contracts moved down by Rs 1.20 or 1.03% to Rs 115.05 per kg in business turnover of 1,272 lots. The metal for delivery in March traded fell by a similar margin to trade at Rs 115.60 per kg in 24 lots. Market men said weakness in copper and other base metals at in global markets slowing global growth concerns mainly weighed on zinc prices at futures trade. At the LME, zinc dropped as much as 0.8%



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Last Updated February 8, 2016